How do we get to a world without Russian President Vladimir Putin?
The reality is that there’s no easy path to get there, despite what some US Senators or leaders within the European Union might want. There has been a near constant stream of chatter from elected officials, talking heads, and regular citizens asking why (or, in some cases, pleading) Russia’s cabal of oligarchs don’t simply… eliminate Putin from the equation.
I’ll save you from the messier details of how some plans would go, but history is rife with examples of palace coups that remove this or that blundering leader. Russia is not likely to be one of those places.
For one, Russia’s oligarchs derive their legitimacy and ability to operate (read: plunder) directly from Putin. Oligarchs may have their own relatively small patronage systems, but they don’t have the support of the Russian people. Which brings us to a more important point: the Russian military, intelligence services, and Russian people are still largely supportive of Putin.
While this may change, this is something we can’t gloss over. There is still considerable institutional support around Putin. And while less critical, there is the very important fact that the current stock of oligarchs range from inept, to incredibly corrupt, to cowardly, to reviled. And these are their good points.
Whatever Putin is, he’s not stupid. And none of the individuals he handpicked to develop (read: plunder) the Russian state’s industries and resources was someone who could one day mount a reasonable challenge to his authority.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.
Add the extravagances and exaggerations of the fiat era to the excesses and eruptions of the demographic moment and we have experienced the largest credit surges in human history. In the United States we know the biggest chunk of those surges as the subprime era. From 2000, when the subprime industry was birthed, to 2007, when ended, total credit in the United States roughly doubled. The ensuing crash from such irrational exuberance knocked roughly 5 percent off of U.S. GDP in the two years before the economy found its footing.
Doubling of credit. Five percent economic drop. That’s a good baseline. Let’s take a quick look around:
The credit picture of Brazil is a reasonable echo of Greece: a sixfold increase, peaking in 2014. In that year investor sentiment and the Brazilian political system broke at the same time, triggering a political crisis and deep recession that at the time of this writing shows no sign of abating. Making matters worse, Brazil’s constitution and currency only date back to the 1990s. Not only is this modern Brazil’s first true political and economic crisis, but it is a full-blown constitutional crisis that hits at the very bedrock of everything that makes Brazil…Brazil. Assuming for the moment that the Brazilian political system regenerates in short order (and there is no sign of that) and that Brazil’s governing institutions suffer no additional damage (and that seems sheer fantasy), Brazil faces years of severe recession simply to recover from their credit overexpansion. Brazil isn’t looking down the maw of a lost decade, but instead at two. At least.
With the combination of a fairly diversified economy, government policies welcoming immigration, and a bevy of mineral reserves big enough to feed insatiable Chinese demand, Australia has avoided recession for a generation. Others noticed, and foreign money has funneled into the country to take advantage of the longest continuous period of economic growth in human history. That has turned the Great Down Under into the most over credited of the Western countries to not yet experience a credit collapse. Credit has increased sixfold since 2000. Housing and household debt are of course the expected bugaboos, but the credit inflows have pushed the Australian dollar up to uncomfortably unsustainable highs, eroding the competitiveness of every economic sector outside of mining. Any effort the government has taken to decrease demand with regulatory hammers has been overwhelmed by a tax code that not only encourages property ownership, but in fact encourages those already owning residential property to purchase more. This would be a problem anywhere, but in Australia it is particularly acute. Oz might seem like a place with a lot of land, but the Outback is beyond useless to residential real estate. The vast bulk of the Aussie population lives in fewer than ten largely disconnected metro regions, sharply limiting availability and driving up the cost of building new housing inventory. This will blow.
At the time of this paragraph’s addition on February 28, 2022, Russia is being melon-scooped out of global finance as punishment for the Ukraine War, the Russian Central Bank included. By the time this book publishes, the world will have a fascinating, horrific case study of true financial disintegration. Nor is Russia done. Beset with a population aging into decrepitude and a system that has given up educating the next generation, Russia’s credit collapse is but one of a phalanx of factors capable of ending the Russian state. The question isn’t will the Russians go out swinging—Russian’s invasion of Ukraine is testament to that—but instead, who else will they swing at? Over-credited countries beware. Credit collapses can be caused by any number of actions or inactions. They do not require a war. Or sanctions.
The absolute financial blowout that is China has generated the largest and most unsustainable credit boom in human history both in absolute and relative measures. The Chinese will exit the modern world just as they entered it: with a big splash. The only question is when. If I had the answer to that you wouldn’t be reading this book, because instead of struggling through edits I’d be idling away my days on the Peter Virgin Islands.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
The Ukrainian military has enjoyed an outsized amount of success when it comes to successfully finding–and eliminating–a variety of high-value Russian targets. The Ukrainian military did not have a reputation of hitting above their weight before the Russians invaded this past February, nor do we think of them as the kinds of technical wunderkinds to quickly build up indigenous signals and targeting intelligence capabilities.
Which means they’re probably getting some help.
A constellation of various American military and civilian officials have spoken openly about the United States’ intelligence sharing relationship with the Ukrainians, either while testifying before the US Congress or directly with the media. They typically frame the intelligence sharing as necessary for helping to keep Ukrainian civilians safe, or giving the government in Kyiv a heads up about Russian intentions.
There’s little evidence to believe that this represents the full scope of intelligence sharing.
Not the least of which is the growing list of Russian generals and military commanders who keep ending up dead. Or the absolutely stunning amount of Russian planes, tanks, armored personnel carriers, rocket launchers and ships (including the flagship of the Black Sea fleet) that the Ukrainians have successfully eliminated. We should give credit where credit is due. The Ukrainian military and volunteers are by all accounts a highly motivated bunch. It is not easy to metabolize new weapons systems, training and tactics–especially against a larger force.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Europe is moving rapidly toward enacting an embargo against Russian crude oil. One of the main enforcement mechanisms will likely be denying maritime insurance coverage to ships carrying Russian crude to European ports.
We’ve already seen many ship captains and crews avoiding loading at Russia’s Black Sea oil terminals out of a fear for their own physical safety–the Iran/Iraq war provides a good historical analogue for the risks to tanker ships in an active war zone. But Russia’s Baltic and Pacific ports aren’t seeing a lot of activity either, as many global buyers are looking to stay on the right side of a quickly evolving sanctions regime.
Which brings us back to the world of maritime insurance. Some 95% of global insurance and reinsurance markets are dominated by European players. Would-be buyers of Russian crude who could leverage sovereign indemnification of Russian cargoes–China and Turkey, potentially India–must now weigh the worth of crude discounts against falling afoul of the Europeans and access to their markets.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
The Russian military has abandoned any hope of local Ukrainians viewing them as welcome liberators or Slavic cousins. And so too has the Russian military abandoned any pretense of trying to limit civilian casualties. Russian military strategy in Ukraine–decried early on as a logistical quagmire and proof of Moscow’s status as a paper tiger–created one set of lessons for the Americans and other backers of Ukraine’s army (something we’ve touched on here).
But the changing strategic landscape has created another set of lessons for Russia’s military itself. Moscow is now moving decidedly toward eliminating civilian infrastructure and, increasingly, civilians themselves. As of writing, nearly half of Ukraine’s population are now refugees, internally displaced, or trapped in place under active fire. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has quickly become the largest mass refugee event in human history.
To that end, we would like to both remind our followers that we are working to bring attention to aid groups like the Afya Foundation, as well as thank all of your for the incredible generosity and commitment you have already shown. The Afya Foundation works to deliver donated medical supplies from the United States directly to refugees in and around the Ukrainian conflict. As the Russian military continues to escalate its targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure, Afya is working with medics and other volunteers to deliver necessary medical supplies within Ukraine.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
