The Russian state has kept a degree of separation from the Wagner Group for the past decade, but years of war crimes and avoided sanctions are about to come crashing down on Putin…
If you’re not familiar, the Wagner Group has been operating internationally as a gang of mercenaries and thugs since 2014. Most countries knew this was a branch of the Russian State, but many embraced the ‘legal deniability’ to protect trade and relations.
The Russian government just admitted that Wagner is, and always has been, an arm of the Russian State. Not only is this going to piss a lot of people off and start a new round of punitive sanctions, but it also means that the seizure of Wagner (aka Russian) assets will be starting up very soon.
Wagner’s capacity to operate internationally is going away, and Russia no longer has the ability to project power outside of the former Soviet space. So if you’re tired of hearing the name Yevgeny Prigozhin or Wagner, you’re probably in luck…
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hello, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado. Today is the 27th of June. And the news is that the Russian government has admitted formally that Wagner is an arm of the Russian state to the tune of about $1,000,000,000 a year in terms of their outlays. Now, why is this important?
Now, Wagner was formed by the Russians, specifically by a guy by the name of Prigozhin back in 2013, 2014, in the lead up to the Donbass war, which is a war where the Russians basically created what we’re called little green men to fight on the other side of an international border and foment a, quote, secession war, and then under that pretext, move in regular forces. Well, no one really bought it, but the legal fiction did allow a degree of separation that gave especially the Europeans pause. And anyone who was looking for an excuse to continue normal relations with the Russians. The Germans are probably at the top of that list, grabbed onto that little flimsy bit of legalism with both hands and wouldn’t let go. In the years since, Wagner has been used by the Russian state in any number of conflicts all over the world, most notably in the Middle East and Africa. And in those operations, because it has not been a state entity, it has gleefully engaged in the series of massacres that are really war crimes by almost any definition. And so Wagner has been under sanction not just in the United States and the European Union, but Australia, Japan, a lot of other countries that we generally considered part of the you know, if you want, here’s a loaded term, civilized world – and are the the leaders of it are persona non grata at most of the world’s airports. Well, but as long as the Russians haven’t claimed that Wagner is one of their own from a government point of view, that it’s just a group of mercenaries, kind of like a Russian Blackwater, if you will, then that degree of legal separation allows Wagner to do what it wants might be under sanction, but it’s not like it’s under state sanction charges today.
Now that Vladimir Putin has said that Wagner is and always was part of the Russian state, assets of the Russian state can be seized in order to pay for things that Wagner has done in various countries. And whenever you have a government shift in one of the countries where Wagner is accused of war crimes or one bordering it, that has an influence in that area, you now have two things going on. Number one, the degree of legal installation is gone. Now, anything that Wagner does or has done, Moscow itself is culpable. And in a lot of circumstances, Wagner slash Russia have been compensated not with cash, but with, say, mineral concessions, with gold mines being a favorite. Those are now legally all up in the air. So the admission here not only is going to piss off a lot of people in Europe and generate an awful new round of punitive sanctions, it means that the assets of the Russian state and the assets of Wagner are now one and the same, and the same tools can go after all of them. And that flimsy legal pretext is completely gone now. And so anyone who had a line into a private asset by Wagner or public assets by Russia can now use those same tools to go after both. So we’re going to see a wrapping up of Wagner’s international economic position in a relatively short period of time. And it won’t take much of a government shift in places where Wagner has been accused of war crimes that include Sudan and the Central African Republic and Syria and Libya in order to see their military position wrapped up as well. And that, of course, assumes that nothing else goes wrong and several other things are going wrong.
So as you guys have obviously seen those Wagner through a kind of not-coup over the weekend and Wagner troops now have to pledge loyalty to the Russian state and hand over their heavy equipment to the Russian military. Some of them will. Some of them won’t. And what that means is there’s a smaller number of Wagner staff that are available to man all these international missions in the first place, even if the Russian government doesn’t go through and do a purge of them. And that purge is definitely coming. Remember that Vladimir Putin’s power center is not within the Russian military. They control it. But that’s not their power center. Their power center is within the security services, most notably the intelligence bureaus like the FSB and the GRU. And those institutions are very capable of doing a purge of personnel of people who are not physically in Russia. So we’re going to be seeing a lot of that. So Wagner’s capacity to function internationally is going to go down significantly. And since the Russian military no longer has the capacity to project beyond the former Soviet Union, you’re looking at all of this getting wrapped up one way or another, probably by the end of the year.
Despite all the hullabaloo about the not-coup in Russia over the weekend, this assessment that we had initially planned to publish still holds true for the tactical situation in Ukraine…as well as some of the strategic implications with the Russians.
Note: If you were following the Russia Coup Series over the weekend, you might have already seen the tactical update in this video. The second half (starting around 8:40) is the fundamentally new material.
Today’s newsletter comes to you from my parents’ front porch in Iowa.
We’re about three weeks into the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and most of the reports have left (more than) a little to be desired. While these tactical reports are lackluster, we must step back and break down the strategy behind everything. I’ll let the video speak for itself, but the main pieces we’re looking at revolve around movement and politics.
The Ukrainians are shifting their focus from command and control centers to munition dumps and infrastructure, allowing Ukraine to limit or, at the very least, complicate resupplies and the flow of Russian troops.
The nuclear discussion is finally happening in the US. A proposed joint resolution states any Russian (or Belarusian) action involving nuclear consequences will be considered an act of war under Article 5 of NATO. This is just a statement of intent, but at least they got the ball rolling on the strategic nuclear policy conversation.
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here. It’s the 23rd of June coming to you from Iowa and I’m at my parents, where I am in town for a birthday. So I’m here on the front porch talking about Ukraine because why the hell not?
There have been a lot of reports over the course of the last week about how the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not going particularly well. I’d be lying if I said that that is a thought that hasn’t occurred to me. But I’ve always tried to step back and not use tactical developments to inform strategic discussions because there is the whole fog of war thing going on. The Ukrainians are keeping mum about a lot of the details, whereas the Russians are just flat out lie and no one really has an accurate picture of what’s actually going on on the various fronts.
That said, we’re now well into the third week of the conflict and the Ukrainians haven’t achieved any sort of breakthrough. There’s two main lines of defense that the Russians are trying to hold. The first is a series of minefields, and the second is a series of more strategic defensive emplacements like Dragon’s Teeth and Trenches. And the Ukrainians haven’t really been able to get past the minefields to get to the real defenses yet.
And what that means is they’ve just kind of been bogged down in attritional fighting. And because the Russians have an order of magnitude more industrial plants and reserves and at least a factor of three more population, any battle in which the Ukrainians are duking it out a mano a mano is not one that they’re going to do well.
And in fact, any battle where the Ukrainians only kill three times as many Russians as they lose in their own troops is a battle they’ve lost. So instead of seeing the dramatic breakthroughs that we saw in person in Kharkiv last summer, it’s been a slugfest and it hasn’t gone well. That said, a couple things. Number one, we’re still early in the offensive, are still probing for weaknesses.
They’re still going after command and control. And then second, in the last 96 hours, a few things have changed. First of all, three or four days ago, Ukrainians shifted from using their missiles to target command and control systems to going after ammo dumps. And you would do that when you’re getting to the next phase of the operation. You feel like you’ve broken up their ability to react and now you’re trying to not just to trick their forces, but make sure that the forces cannot actually get meaningful supplies.
But the real issue happened with the morning of Thursday, the 22nd of June, when the Ukrainians put some serious holes in a few supply bridges that are critical for Russian forces. And to understand the significance of that targeting shift, we need to look at a few maps. Here’s our first map of the Ukrainian space. Nothing too exciting here.
The red line is roughly where the front is. The Russians occupied the territory to the east and south of that line and the yellow bars are where the Ukrainians have put their primary thrusts. Now, the the one on the left there, that’s the separatists, the front. The Ukrainians have been expected to go in that direction since the very beginning of this conflict, because if they can push down to the Sea of Azov, they can basically isolate the entirety of the southwestern front and Crimea, because not only would there no longer be a land bridge between Russia proper and Crimea, but the Ukrainians would be able to target the Kerch Strait Bridge directly.
But they’ve had more success going further into the east because there are fewer defensive works. But still in all these cases, you’re talking about advances in the single digits of kilometers. No sort of strategic breakthrough where mobile Russian forces excuse me, where mobile Ukrainian forces and getting behind the Russians and isolate them and break them up and for strategic retreats and routes.
Okay. Here’s a zoom in on Ukraine. The single most important thing here is, of course, the Kerch Bridge, an attack, unclaimed attack. We don’t really know who did it, but either the Americans, the Ukrainians took out one of the spans of the Kerch Bridge last summer. Now the Kerch Bridge has three lines to it to two lane road connections and one rail connection.
The Ukrainians, Americans, whoever it happened to be, were able to take out one of those two lane road connections and start a series of fires on a railcar that was going by on the rail bridge at that time, which warped the bridge and made it impossible to handle cargo. So no more trains in and out of Crimea from this route and used to be the primary route.
And only two of the four road lanes were being asked to go on truck. And when they do have convoys coming or going, they have to shut it down to other traffic. So that was a big hit and it forced the Russians to shift their supply route over to this area, to the land connections that go into Crimea.
So let’s zoom in there. Now, first thing to understand about this area is a lot of this is not land. This entire zone here is a series of brackish lakes, which obviously you’re not going to be running cargo across. In fact, there’s only really two ways to cross. On the left, you’ve got the proper land connection, which is in all land routes that goes through southern Ukraine.
It is the furthest connection from the front. It’s not that the infrastructure there doesn’t work. It’s just that it’s not great. However, if you go to the yellow arrow, the one further to the right to the east, you’re looking at the Charnock crossing. Now, China has a rail connection and a road connection, and it’s these connections that the Ukrainians put some holes in.
They use a special kind of warhead, which I’m not going to go into detail because it’s not my focus. But it blew all the way through the concrete blue, all the way through the rebar, put a giant hole right in the middle of the thing. You’re not taking trucks across that. You’re not taking the rail across that until such time as these are repaired.
Repaired. It is not beyond the capacity of the Russians. But keep in mind that it’s been months since Kerch had that whole put it and the rail connection there has still not been rebuilt. One of the many, many downsides of the Soviet dissolution is we’ve had a simultaneous education crisis and demographic crisis now decades in progress. The technical education system in Russia collapsed back in the eighties and the demographics of they’ve had a death rate that’s been higher than the birth rate for 30 years now, which means that the youngest suite of people who have the full skill set to be technical experts, they’re in their fifties right now, will turn 60 this year on
average. They still haven’t replaced the span encouraged. They still haven’t replaced the rail system. There’s a question as to whether they can. Now, the China crossing is not nearly sophisticated. Instead of being a high elevated suspension bridge, it’s a low block bridge. It’s not blocking navigation. This is not a navigable waterway system. They probably can do it, but it’s going to take them a few weeks, which means in the meantime, any cargo going to and from Ukraine has to come from that western bridge.
And this means that the soldiers in Ukraine, the Russian soldiers in occupied Ukraine, are facing a double bind. Back to this map. Notice the city of Mariupol. Basically, any Russian troops that are west of that zone have basically been cut off from supplies that come from Russia proper off in the east. They got everything they needed from Crimea, which is, you know, more difficult to support now and now with the China Bridge off line, it’s going to take about a week for the Russians to reroute everything further west to then cross a larger just a chunk of territory that would suggest to me that the Ukrainians are as ready as they can possibly be to
make a push in that direction. Now, coming down from the Japanese here, it doesn’t really matter where they penetrate. As long as they reach the Sea of Azov, it could be east of Mariupol, it could be west of multiple. It could be anywhere in between. Any way that they can cut that land bridge forever and then have the range in order to hit the remains of the bridge to wreck if we’re going to see an attack, if this counteroffensive is going to really manifest as something, these are exactly the circumstances you would expect the Ukrainians to shape.
And now they’ve done it. And since there is going to be a window before the Russians can redirect supplies further to the west, the troops in the multiple area are now completely cut off, vulnerable. They’re not going to get reinforcements. They’re not going to get fuel. They’re not going to get artillery shells and ammo. Now would be the time.
Now, that’s the strategic picture that we’re seeing right now. There is also something going on with the politics. Also on the 22nd. 22nd was a big day. Senators Blumenthal from Connecticut and Graham from South Carolina, a Democrat and a Republican, put out a joint resolution that they’re trying to get passed that would basically say that any Russian use or Belarus should use directly or indirectly through the proxies of a strategic nuclear weapon, a tactical nuclear weapon, or taking actions that they omission or commission cause.
A meltdown at a nuclear power plant would be considered an act of war under Article five of Nito. The Russians have, we know from satellite photos, mined the coolant from of the Japanese power plant Smuckers. Anyway, what the idea is to warn not just Putin, but the people who would get the orders that if they follow those orders, that they’re not just simply going to be new, causing a nuclear catastrophe in Ukraine proper, but it will be perceived by the United States and its allies as an act of war, and they will be choosing to initiate a direct military conflict with the United States and the natural lights.
Now, this interpretation of Article five is an executive privilege. It is not something Congress can really put their their fingers in. In addition, a joint resolution is just that. It’s a resolution. It’s not a law is a statement of intent. So there’s no legal weight here. Also, Article five is something that will be decided among the allies, not by the United States, unilaterally.
So this is probably not the right tool to effect, the right tool for the job. But I’m very glad that the two senators have started the conversation because the Russians have long considered for several years that Crimea is an integral part of their own territory, the annexed it back in 2014. And so anything that pushes towards Crimea, you’re crossing the gray zone where the Russians might actually consider that to be a real war where the use of defensive nuclear weapons might be warranted.
Now, that is not accepted in the United States or in the West. In fact, it’s not accepted in China. It’s not accepted by Ortega in Nicaragua. No country in the world has recognized the annexation of Crimea by the Russians. In fact, aside from some foreign pro-Russian shills like Tucker Carlson, no one in the United States considers Crimea to be Russian territory.
But it doesn’t matter what we think. It matters what the Russians think and whether or not they’re going to treat Crimea like Moscow. And there’s only one way to find out. In addition, if the Ukrainians are going to win this war, eventually they’re going to have to cross the international border, not just into Crimea, but into Russia proper and take out some logistics tackle hubs that are on Russian territory that is clearly crossing into what is internationally recognized Russian space.
And again, the defensive nuclear question comes into play. So while this isn’t the right tool for the job that the senators have picked up, I’m very happy that they have decided to at least start the conversation in this country about something we haven’t had a conversation on since the 1980s strategic nuclear, their policy vis a vis the Russians.
This is a conversation we have to have and this is going to sound really weird, but we probably have the best president in 30 years to have that conversation. Say what you will about Biden and there is a lot to say. He was there as an old man when the first nuclear weapon was detonated back in 1945, 44, four forties.
So he’s seen the entire arc of nuclear policy in this country and gives him a unique perspective that we’re going to need in the months to come. So things have broken loose. It looks like we’re on the verge of seeing the real counteroffensive, or at least if it’s going to happen. It’s going to happen now. And we’re at the dawn of a new stage of the conflict where we need to be thinking about some much deeper questions.
All right. That’s it for me. Everybody take care. See you next time.
An attempted coup is in progress in Russia. The mercenary group Wagner, led by a one-time confidant of Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Prigozin, is attempting to overthrow the Kremlin. The implications for the Ukraine War are…massive.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Today’s video comes to you from the Okanagan region of BC – famous for its deep lakes, good wine, and (typically) blue skies.
We’re talking about agriculture today, specifically the ban that five EU countries just placed on Ukrainian exports. With Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania dropping this hammer, I would expect Ukraine exports to fall by up to 90%.
Most Ukrainian exports used to go out by sea; now that Russia is cutting these lines off, rail is the next best option. However, these new bans will force exports to travel farther to Western Europe, requiring transfer to new rail cars due to incompatible gauges and adding a few extra “0s” to the bill along the way.
In addition to the cuts in exports, many of the processing capabilities that enabled Ukraine to move up the value-add chain have also been taken offline. With neighboring countries prioritizing local farmers, Ukraine is s*** out of luck.
There isn’t a quick fix for any of this either…unless the Ukrainian counter-offensive can capture all of the Crimean Peninsula…but that’s not going to happen anytime soon. While this is a devastating blow for Ukraine, its effects will be felt far and wide, with Egypt at the top of that list.
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hey Everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from Canada’s famed Okanagan Region, an area famous for its deep lakes, it’s nice wine and its crystal blue skies. But maybe not today because it’s just as smoggy and smoky as the rest of the continent is going to be for the rest of the summer. Anyway, I want to use today as an opportunity to talk about some of the agricultural things that are going on in the Ukrainian space.
Specifically, we now have a coalition of five EU countries that have decided that they’re not going to accept any shipments any longer from Ukraine. They’ll still allow trans-shipments. So it’s not like the stuff’s completely gone now, but they’re not going to take the delivery themselves. You’ve got five countries Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania, all of whom are relatively significant agricultural producers for a lot of the same products that come out of Ukraine. And what’s been happening is the Ukrainians have lost the ability to do their normal export systems. Normally, they would ship everything out by water, down the Dnieper, get it packaged at a place like Nikolayev or Odessa, and then shipped out to the wider world. Or they would process it and crush it. In the case of Sunflower at home and then ship out the the intermediate product, they can’t do any of that right now. The power grid is not stable enough to do the crushing, and most of the crushing is in ports, several of which are under Russian control. And the Russians have the ability, because they have naval supremacy in the area, to prevent any sort of bulker from coming or going without their express say so.
Now there has been a deal in place that allows the Ukrainians to export somewhat. Basically the Russians insist on inspecting the bulker on the way in and the way out to make sure it’s not being used to smuggle. And that deal has basically fallen apart now. So it’s been going less and less and less over the winter, and now it’s basically defunct. And the Russians are indicating that they really have no intention of re-upping that at all. Now, this used to be 80% or almost 90% of Ukraine’s exports. You can rail stuff out. But now three problems. Number one, there’s a different rail gauge between the European Union and the former Soviet world. So that’s a problem. Know there are only so many carriages that can adjust. Number two, all of the countries that are on the edge, you know, Poland, Romania and the rest, they’re all grain exporters themselves. So when the Ukrainian stuff was coming in, it was getting dumped on the local market. Local farmers were getting quite aggro and now they can’t do that. So you can still export it through these countries to other places. But then you need twice as many rail cars that are capable of that jump, or you need a facility at the border that can shift the grain from one car to another. And those just don’t exist at scale. And now you need twice as many to get the same amount of stuff out. So all told, with these two problems in place, you’re looking at Ukrainian grain exports dropping by roughly 80 to 92%, and there’s really no way around that. The third problem is that processing stage, the Ukrainians, while always being a significant exporter of the raw stuff, also did a lot of crushing specifically for their sunflowers. Well, with that crushing now only accessible, they need to find another facility. There are facilities in all five of these countries, but they process local stuff. So once you process an agricultural commodity into things like oil, it takes up a lot less space. It’s higher value to bulk. Well, not only are the Ukrainians not able to do that now, so they get this higher bulk, lower value product, they have to send it farther. And it just takes too much effort and too much cost and there’s not enough infrastructure to support it. They’ve been trying to build out the rail system. They’ve been trying to bring in more rail cars, carriages, but it just hasn’t been enough to move the needle. And so even without the Russians deliberately attacking the agricultural infrastructure, which they are doing, you’re still looking at that 80 to 90% reduction in the ability of Ukraine to participate in the international market.
The biggest losers, aside from the Ukrainians, of course, are the Egyptians who source the majority of their imported wheat from Ukraine specifically. But there’s a large number of countries in Africa and in South Asia that source ultimately Ukrainian and to a lesser degree, Russian wheat. And we’re going to see all of them get hit to a significant degree. The question will be if we get to a point where the Russians start actually targeting shipments themselves. We’re not there yet. It’s probably just around the corner. The only way that this is going to change is as the Ukrainians get access to the water again. And that means if this counteroffensive that they’ve just launched is successful, it would have to include, at a minimum, the liberation of the entirety of the Crimean Peninsula, because most of the grain goes down the Dnieper River to Odessa. And as long as any part of that route is within range of Russian weaponry, it’s just a no go. So you’re talking about them having the Ukrainians would need to liberate the entirety of southern Ukraine and the entirety of the Crimean peninsula, and that is a very, very tall order, probably won’t happen this year, which means that any of the agriculturalists and farmers in Ukraine who get screwed this year because of a lack of export options won’t have the income that’s necessary to afford to plant next year. And assuming a runaway Ukrainian victory, it still means that Ukraine is not going to be a significant agricultural player in the world for several years. And then, of course, if the counteroffensive fails…a lot longer than that.
Well, crap. I kind of was looking for a happier topic. This is not it. I’ll try harder tomorrow. Bye..
This is the first of the “Ask Peter” series, so I figured we’d kick it off with a two-parter. First, what’s the likelihood of Putin getting assassinated? Second, how is Russia’s demographic situation?
Answering the second question will help us understand the first question. Russia is in contention for the worst demographics in the world…Ukraine and China are up there too. One reason is the vast demographic gouges caused by past trauma, the big one being the collapse of the Soviet Union, which doubled the mortality rate and halved the birth rate. More recently, over a million people have fled Russia since the war started, many being young men avoiding the draft.
The collapsing government and nonexistent education system amplify this grim situation. With all these factors stacking up, Russia views its position as existential (because it is). The only path to survival is expanding and conquering the necessary geographical barriers.
This war has to end with one side being completely defeated. Even if the Ukrainians can humiliate Putin to the point that revolutions break out in Moscow and they put a democratic government in power, the Russians wouldn’t be able to climb out of the hole they’ve dug. The Russians are in this thing until the end. And their demise is coming this century. The only question is will it be in a few years or decades?
As for Putin, it doesn’t really matter if he goes bye-bye. There are scores within Russia’s top rungs ready to see this to the end. Remember: this war isn’t about one man’s ego, but rather Russia’s survival strategy.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
We’ve got a map with this one. We’ll be putting it into the video as well, but there’s a lot going on and you might want to hang on to this for reference.
There are three main assaults to follow: one of strategic importance and the others being a mix of strategic and emotional significance.
The purely strategic assault is a multi-pronged move on Zaporizhia in hopes of pushing south to the Sea of Azov. This would sever the land bridges of Ukraine proper and Russia proper…splitting the front in two.
The second assault was supposed to be an amphibious assault further down the river that would eventually cut off the Crimean Peninsula. The Russians foiled those plans with the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam.
The third assault is a push east into the Donbas. This would be no easy feat, but it’s on the table for one reason: if the Ukrainians can reclaim territory that Russia seized in 2014, it would be a global humiliation. Humiliating enough to convince some of those Russian backers to reconsider their allegiances.
Oh yeah, one more thing:
The information on the Zaporizhia offensive comes from Russian military bloggers, not the Ukrainians. Kyiv seems to have operational security down. I’ve heard a lot of details, but nothing that I’m in a position to authenticate. Ergo, this video’s broad-brush approach.
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
I don’t usually do this, but today I’m going to be talking about the #haters. We’ll also dive a little deeper into the Kakhovka Dam that was destroyed by the Russians.
I’ll let the video speak for itself today, but I’ll leave you with two thoughts.
Number 1: If you need to get across a dam, why would you blow it up before you cross it?
Number 2: If you’re not a bot or troll, maybe come up with a username other than @Tony89380945
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from my favorite front range Foothills Trail. It’s called The Golden Banner. I can see in the South all the way to Castle Rock in the North, all the way to the Red Rocks Amphitheater, which is a great place to see a show. By the way, I’m going to do something today that I don’t normally do. I’m going to talk about the haters.
Yesterday I released a video where guys that would be this morning released a video on why the Russians blew up the Kakhovka Dam and people came out of the woodwork to say, I doesn’t I didn’t know what I was talking about. And obviously it was the Ukrainians. Just to give you a quick refresher, two things.
Number one, the Ukrainians are starting their counteroffensive and by blowing up the dam, what the Russians have done is they’ve made a direct crossing of the dam impossible, obviously, but they’ve also made an amphibious landing on either side of the dam, on the river, impossible, because the reservoir above the river is now draining very, very quickly. And independent of that being a dangerous environment, it’s going to leave behind a muddy bed, which is going be very difficult to get any vehicles across. And then south of the river, everything is flooded. And when the waters do recede a couple of weeks from now, again, very, very muddy and difficult to move. So any sort of amphibious landing is going to be impossible. In addition, most of the thrust probably is going to be south from Japanese to towards the Sea of Azov. And in that sort of scenario, Russian forces are going to have a choice of going one or two directions, then go east to the Donbas and get back to Mother Russia, or then go southwest and cross over into the Crimean peninsula. If the Ukrainians had been able to capture the Kakhovka dam rather than have it destroyed, they had the chance of actually cutting those forces off. And then you might have tens of thousands of encircled Russian troops that would have to surrender. And the global hit to Russian power from that would have been immense. That is now completely off the table.
So from a purely military perspective, the Russians made a wise move. There’s also a long term economic issue. A million acres of southern Ukraine is no longer going to irrigation water because it came from that reservoir. Water levels now drop below the levels of the canal. So they’re dry aside from a few pockets of dry wheat. That’s it. So you’ve just taken the single largest chunk of agricultural land in history offline all at once. Yikes. Anyway, back to the dam.
This might seem kind of simple, but dams are giant pieces of reinforced concrete that are hundreds of feet thick at the base. This thing’s 1500 feet from one side to the other, is at least 200 feet thick, probably thicker. So we just don’t keep good data on that for the rest of us. And you don’t just throw a few bombs at this. If you want to take out the dam from the air, you attack the weak points. Those are specifically the control gates and the navigation locks that you have on both sides up and below. That’s not what was hit. If the navigation logs were hit, that would be where the water is flowing through there high and dry now. And if the control gates were hit, that wouldn’t have necessarily led to a structural failure across the entire length of the dam, which is exactly what we’re seeing now. This thing was blown up from the inside, specifically with tons of explosives, specifically located in the turbine room. And for the Ukrainians to have done that, they would have had to have launched an attack on the dam. Somehow the Russians, who have been preparing for this for a year, didn’t notice and then managed to smuggle like two cargo trucks worth of explosives and place them and hit the trigger. No, no, no, no, no, no. You’re also not going to do this with 500 pound bombs, or at least not one or two. So, you know, the other aircraft idea is like a direct attack on the dam. Well, I mean, number one, that requires aircraft and there is no indication of aircraft or anti aircraft fire in this area that night. And you’re not going to do it with one plane you’re into with several because it takes a lot to crack one of these suckers open.
And then third, Ukraine, you don’t have fighter bombers. I mean, they inherited a few from the Soviet Union. They had the beginning of the war. They haven’t been flying them because they’re not any good in the dogfight role and they don’t have the bombs that would be necessary anyway. So you’re talking about what, multiple dumb drops with weapons that they don’t have from platforms that they really don’t fly? I’m sorry. The people who say that this was Ukraine are just headless at this point anyway. Well, I guess that’s the whole point. They’re bots or trolls. So this was definitely the Russians.
One more thing. And yes, sometimes dams fail, but there’s always warning. You’ll have cracks, you’ll have leaks. They don’t fail catastrophically overnight. And yeah, yeah, this has been in a war zone, but it’s not like it’s been under attack and for it to all fail catastrophically from within on the day that the Ukrainians are starting their counteroffensive. Yeah, no.
Let’s talk about bots and trolls. So I have always had to deal with a lot of bots and a lot of trolls from a lot of places with the Russians probably being at the top of that list, they at one point were probably about ten, maybe even 15% of my total followers just before the war started. But then the war started. And when the war started, Western governments and the social media companies decided that enough was enough. And they had a broad scale purge of the Russian presence, both from the social media platforms themselves and the crackdown on the financial transfers that allowed them to hire trolls in other countries to make it look like they weren’t, you know, Russian sourced. That all went away in the first two weeks of the war. And I probably saw the number of trolls and bots on my platform dropped by 99%. But then Elon Musk took over and said that this violates his idea of free speech. And so they’re all back. In fact, I’d argue that there’s twice as many now. It’s the were before the war and they all came out of the woodwork in the last 24 hours to scream at me over a thing. What do you do about bots? What do you do about trolls? So first you have to identify them as a rule. If they have a lot of numbers after the line, you know, it’s a troll or you know it’s a bot because there’s not a lot of creativity that’s put into the profiles. If you really want to, you can scan through their feed and you’ll see that a lot of these guys quote one another. I mean, I think a lot of these guys quote one another. So it really is kind of just a circular economy of crap. It don’t trade with them. If you do, they will make it into your feed on a regular basis, as will their friends. The way Musk has rejiggered the algorithm is any engagement from you. It shows interest. So if there’s a topic you don’t care about, if you just think they’re completely wrong and misinformation, don’t engage because you’ll get more and more and more and more of that. Third, don’t block them, mute them. If you block them, they’re going to know and they’re going to move on and try a different strategy. But if you mute them, they don’t know and they’re screaming into the void and they want to ever show up on your feed or your platform again. And then they’re wasting their time and their money and not yours. So hopefully this clears up a few things. For those of you who are real people in real followers, I hope this filled in some gaps for you.
For those of you who are trolls, you can always reach me at my direct personal email – I’[email protected]
On June 6th, the Russians destroyed the Nova Kakhovka Dam at the head of a large reservoir on the Dnieper River. This is a logical move for the Russians…at least in the short term.
To impede the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Russians eliminated one of the few viable land crossings in the area and caused flooding further downriver. I wouldn’t expect this to be an isolated event, either. As the Russians seek to inhibit Ukrainian advances, other crossings and dams will likely be targeted.
In addition, the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant’s coolant water could be jeopardized by this move. As of now, it appears there will not be a crisis, but I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.
However, the key component of this move illuminates what Russia’s strategy might be; by destroying the Nova Kakhovka Dam, they wiped out four canal systems…three of which represent critical infrastructure for agriculture in southern Ukraine and Crimea. Russia has made it clear they have little intention of holding this land – and are attempting to make it as hard as possible for anyone else to do so.
By adopting this scorched earth policy, Russia could very well trigger ANOTHER famine throughout this region.
Prefer to read the transcript of the video?Click here
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the campus of the University of Toronto. It is June six. And the news today is that the Russians have blown up the Kakhovka dam, which is at the head of a large reservoir on Ukraine’s central river, the Dnieper. It was blown up from the inside. So it was definitely the Russians. It wasn’t an external explosion. So there’s really no controversy there. And the fact that after I tweeted it out, I got just an avalanche of Russian bots saying otherwise pretty much proves the point for as far as I’m concerned. But anyway, regardless of why it’s gone – four things that matter for us.
First of all, from a purely military point of view, like putting humanitarian issues to the side, we’ll get to that later. This is a reasonable play. The Ukrainians are getting ready for a significant military offensive and at least in part that was going to involve a series of amphibious strikes across the Dnieper River, both above and below the dam. That probably can’t happen now. The reservoir behind it is huge, and it’s going to take a few days for it to drain and that it’s going to expose muddy lakebed. And downstream you’re talking about massive flooding, which when it finally goes down a week or two from now, will also be incredibly muddy. So the offensive to this point has been delayed because of spring melt and winter rains and all of the mud that goes with that. You basically take in this entire zone and made it no go for at least a month now. Later on when the river is lower, it might be easier to cross. But for the here and now and for the next few weeks, absolutely not. So if you’re Russian, there’s some certain logic to destroying the dam. It’s also the only crossing on the river in the lower section. So you’ve now removed even a theoretical place for the Ukrainians to punch across the river on land or reinforce with amphibious assaults from elsewhere. So number one.
Number two, there is a concern upstream of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant because it drew its coolant water from the reservoir. Now, we’ve poked into this a little bit, and the folks at the IAEA are not hugely concerned about this. They think there’s a good backup system in place. But whenever I hear lack of coolant, water, nuclear power plant, I do get a little nervous. So it’s probably, probably not a crisis. We’ll see.
Third, we should expect to see more activities like this. This is not the only crossing. There was a bridge to Kherson that the Russians blew up when they were retreating last summer. And if you go upriver to the Upper East Side, there is a double bridge system, along with another dam, which creates another reservoir. And so we you should definitely expect the Russians to repeat the feat there with similar outcomes, although not as much. It’s not as big as the reservoir. And for similar reasons.
But it’s the fourth and biggest reason that I find most interesting isn’t the right word, but illuminating as to what Russian thinking is. The Kharkov reservoir raises the level of the river and allows for different canal system arms to be fed with irrigation water. And three of those systems are absolutely critical for growing crops in southern Ukraine and the Crimea. Now, I’ve always believed that the Ukrainians were going to disable their destroy one of those systems, the one that specifically serves Crimea, in order to force a siege on the peninsula. But with that reservoir now gone, none of these systems can access water. And you’re talking about territory that is responsible for growing about one quarter of Ukrainian crop. So in a stroke, the Russians have shown us two things. Number one, they really don’t plan on holding this territory in the near term. And so they’re going with an old strategy that’s kind of scorched earth, which is designed to make it as difficult as possible for anyone who takes the territory to hold it. Because we’re talking now about number two, a country that used to be one of the world’s major breadbasket is going to become a net food importer on the verge of at least a regional famine in the not too distant future. Or for those of you who are familiar with Russia’s history in Ukraine, triggering a regional famine. Again.
While in Helsinki, Secretary of State Blinken got some chuckles from the crowd (and me) when he said, “The Kremlin often claimed it had the second strongest military in the world, and many believed it. Today, many see Russia’s military as the second strongest in Ukraine.”
I’m all for some dark humor and ill-timed comedic relief (especially when it’s used to garner more aid and support for Ukraine), but I don’t want us to lose sight of who we’re talking about. A glance at the history books will show you a myriad of crushing defeats for the Russians, yet they persist.
Russia is both incredibly weak and resilient. While I’m confident that this is the beginning of the end of the Russian system, belittling them in this conflict isn’t going to speed up that process. On the other side of this war, we will be left with a resurgent Russia or a very bitter Russia (who happens to have 1,000+ nuclear warheads at their disposal).
Just a word of warning. You can still giggle at Russia’s incompetence or silly Putin memes, but don’t forget who we’re dealing with…
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
There’s a canal that runs from Kherson to the Crimean Peninsula and serves as the area’s sole irrigation water source. And with how dry the region is, this canal is critical to the Crimean Peninsula.
While an assault on Nova Kakhovka might not be in the cards for the Ukrainians, targeting the sluice gate regulating the canal’s flow might still be their priority. That’s because there’s more than just food production on the line. The Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant draws its coolant water from the Kakhova reservoir, and without that, some nuclear…issues could be on the agenda.
With the potential for a Zaporizhzia offensive, the strategic rationale behind targeting this canal is solid. Only time will tell if the Ukrainians capitalize on the opportunity to cut off the Russians and Crimea.
The above map shows the location of the sluice gate
The above map shows the location of the Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant
Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
And then there’s you.
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.
