Bill Clinton and America’s Post-Cold War Leadership

For all of Bill Clinton’s considerable intelligence, bouts of intense curiosity, and ability to make dazzle a room of even his opponents, there was not a lot of deep domestic or international policy crafting during his presidency. His focus on topics tended to follow polls and his own episodic interest. Good for his own approval polling, but in the end the inability to commit would take its toll. 

But part of the reason his approval ratings stayed so high was the fact that his presidency overlapped a sort of halcyon age for Americans (according to Gallup, Clinton’s final presidential approval polls are the highest of any president going back to Harry S. Truman). But just because he got away with it doesn’t mean his leadership style didn’t cast a long shadow. We are still dealing directly with foreign policy decisions he made–and chose not to make–in the present day..

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

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The Jones Act and American Economic Development

A large part of geopolitics is geography–some might even say the most important part. And when it comes to geography, few places are as blessed as the United States. 

One of the key pillars supporting the United States and its historical development is the sheer abundance of navigable waterways. Not only is the Mississippi River basin one of the largest and most productive agricultural regions on the planet, but its crisscrossed with one of the world’s best riverine transport systems. And when it comes to international trade, the United States has the most world-class, deep-water natural ports and largest intracoastal waterway network of any country on the planet.

Which is why it’s so weird that the United States has remained determined to hobble economic development from the Puget Sound to the Chesapeake Bay to Puerto Rico and even Iowa by adhering to the limitations of the Jones Act.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

China and Semiconductors 

The Biden Administration has announced further limits on Chinese firms’ ability to access foreign (read: US dominated) semiconductor technology. Many of my followers ask why I don’t consider China a more capable potential threat to the global order than I do; the ability for Beijing to be cut off from global technology with what amounts to the stroke of a pen is one of them.

China remains utterly dependent on foreign countries for innovation and tech discovery, research, investment into its higher level manufacturing. It’s not just that the most advanced chips powering everything from your smart phone to the cloud and advanced computing are designed in the West (and primarily the US)–key production components and technologies, such as advanced lasers, are often siloed within one or two companies in the US, the Netherlands/EU, or Japan and South Korea. While China might produce the lion’s share of low end chips, they are hardly at the forefront of anything.

We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, we ask you consider supporting MedShare by clicking one of the links below. MedShare is an established non-profit organization that helps respond to medical need globally, including to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

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Where in the World: The Turner Headwall and…Walls

As long as I’m slaying sacred cows, let’s make sure I don’t miss anything: the border wall has been the biggest boon of the last 50 years to illegal migrants, COVID has made large-scale immigration an economic necessity, and Trump/Biden policies towards immigration are one of the three largest sources of inflation today.

Yeah, that should piss some people off.

We have never and will never charge for our newsletters or videos, but we do have an ask. If you enjoy our products, we ask you consider supporting MedShare by clicking one of the links below. MedShare is an established non-profit organization that helps respond to medical need globally, including to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

The Un-Recession

The latest jobs report–published August 5–showed that the United States added over half a million new jobs in the month of July. Unemployment is at or a near a 50-year low. Both points add credence to a growing number of economists who are pushing back against the claim that the US economy is official in a recession, despite recording negative economic growth two quarters in a row (the textbook definition of a recession).

Confused? 

You’re not the only one. The economy is contracting, albeit not by much, but consumer spending is near an all-time high. Unemployment is an all-time low. Manufacturing employment is up. The finance sector, less so. And yet inflation remains a persistent bugbear. What is clear, however, is that the old rules about how our economy works no longer apply. 

And finally, a small programming note: I’m spending the next month hiking and backpacking throughout the portions of the American West. We’ll pick up with more content and more regular dispatches the first week of September.

Nancy Pelosi Goes to Taiwan

The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has arrived in Taiwan. As such, she is the highest-ranking US official to make a visit to the island since her predecessor, Speaker Newt Gingrich, visited in 1997. While there is likely little both would agree on, the former Speaker has been quite supportive of Speaker Pelosi’s decision to visit Taiwan. China has been huffing and puffing about the visit since it was announced, but there’s very little Beijing could do short of shooting down Pelosi’s plane. Which isn’t likely to happen.

Beijing has viewed Taiwan as a breakaway province since the time of Mao, and has worked diligently to erode international recognition of Taipei under its One China Principle. The US since Nixon has held off formally recognizing Taiwan as an independent country, but since the end of the Cold War Washington has moved steadily toward an economic and security relationship with Taiwan that falls just short of official recognition, to Beijing’s dismay.

The US Settles a Score

The United States announced August 1 that it had killed the ideological head of al Qaeda, Ayman al Zawahiri, in a drone strike, over the previous weekend. Reportedly battling a long-time illness, al Zawahiri’s actual level of control over al Qaeda (and its regional affiliates) is debatable. His role in the September 11 attacks against the United States in 2001 and in inspiring campaigns of militancy that killed thousands is decidedly less so.

I do take note of al Zawahiri’s presence in a home inside Kabul. The US–primarily its intelligence agencies–still maintain considerable capabilities in a country with no formal military presence. And they are more than happy to remind any number of bad actors of the fact.

Some Economic Questions…and Some News!

The nature of the economic system so many governments are attempting to grapple with right now is unprecedented in modern history. For much of the span of human history since industrialization, governments could reasonably promise their subjects some kind of more. The promise of more held that the economy–no matter the political system in charge of it–could be expected to grow, largely through population growth and rising demand.

Enter the End of More. A central theme of my equally cheery-titled new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, the pie for many countries is as big as its going to get. This is especially true for countries staring down terminal demographies: Germany, Italy, China, Japan. With population growth firmly in the rear view mirror, these countries can’t rely on a baby boom to spur consumption-led growth.

Which brings us to our current problem with inflation. Central banks’ primary tool in battling inflation is through raising interest rates. Making borrowing more expensive usually dampens demand, thereby pressuring prices to fall. The trick is not dampening demand too much, and risking recession. For the world’s oldest populations, this is going to be an near-impossible balancing act. 

And now for a bit of good news–The End of the World is now officially a New York Times best seller! On behalf of myself and my entire team: thank you, thank you, thank you.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

No Deal with the Devils Just Yet

In light of recent moves by the US to lift some targeted energy sanctions on Venezuela to help bolster energy sanctions against Russia, we are sharing an earlier video on the difficulty the Biden administration would face in trying to rely on “partners” like Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia to limit the pain of sanctioning a major global oil and gas supplier. The challenges facing the global energy market are also a central theme in my upcoming book, The End of the World is just the Beginning, out June 14. Pre-order info here.

In an effort to ease Europe’s transition from Russian energy, the Biden administration has given the green light to two European oil companies—Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol—to ship Venezuelan oil to Europe (and nowhere else) to cover debts.

This resumes a practice that was halted in 2019 by US-imposed sanctions. While this move will not drastically improve Europe’s situation, or affect global oil prices at all, it will boost Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s image in his country. For several years, the US has recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s “Interim President,” despite his inability to oust President Maduro, even with ample US support.

Now the US is in the awkward position of returning to the negotiation table with Mr. Maduro, officially not the president of Venezuela, and relying on his government to ease global energy shortages. Interestingly, the Biden administration also granted permission to Chevron to partially resume operations in Venezuela, meaning the US supermajor can perform basic upkeep of its wells that it operates jointly with state-run oil giant PDVSA. Perhaps this is a hint at more to come, but at the moment Venezuelan crude will not be making its way to the US–nor will the Russian supplies of heavy crude Washington had been buying to replace it.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

The End of the (Developing) World?

In case you haven’t heard, my upcoming book The End of the World is Just the Beginning gets released this Tuesday, June 14. You can pre-order it here.

A lot of my work, and my books up to this point, have been about the rise of powerful nations and the global framework that got them there. This new book is a bit of a different creature. 

This book is about the end of that system–namely, globalization–and what that means for our collective future. Whether its agriculture or manufacturing or finance or energy, there’s a chapter for everyone on how the pillars of the developed economy will look on the backend of one of the largest upheavals of the global economy since the end of World War II.

Here’s a video paraphrasing several of the book’s themes, applying them to the raft countries that we today collectively know as “the developing world.”

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY