The Russian Reach: A Grip on Romania

Romanian flag

If Russia’s influence can make its way into the US on the scale we’re discussing, you can only imagine how bad it is in places like Romania. In December of last year, we discussed the “Red Strings in Romania” (which you can watch here: https://youtu.be/LP7tkPO6Wqk – but things have ramped up.

Romania annulled its presidential election due to proven Russian interference, mainly with Georgescu. He has now been barred from running in May in the re-election. Let’s circle back to how this is playing out in the US.

Tulsi Gabbard and JD Vance have criticized Romania, claiming that Europe is now a bigger threat than Russia. Couple that with the purging of any intelligent government officials near these issues and it’s looking like the US administration is making the case for a broader NATO withdrawal. And I would expect it to only get worse from here.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

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Transcript

Hey all, Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from my house. I’m about ready to jump in the car and head to the airport, but quick news update. A few months ago there were presidential elections in Romania. They did in two rounds. And the guy who came in first place? Guy by the name of Călin Georgescu. 

 It was a nobody. I’ve been in a couple of minor roles in government. The 1990s really hasn’t done anything with his life since. Except for kind of shifted to the hard right, Nazi salutes and everything. Anyway, Romanian authorities, were able to easily prove Russian intervention in the election. 

Both funding for, rescue specifically. So he’s under criminal investigation right now. As well as, my just a huge social media presence that the Russians have fabricated with as many, fake followers as there are citizens in Romania. So it was it was really beyond the pale. The Russians wanted to see how far they could go. 

Anyway, the first round election was annulled. Repeat elections are going to be held in May. And the news overnight is that George Eskew, has been barred from even running, because of the investigation, because of the Russian influence. Now, this, matters for two reasons. First of all, the U.S government now, both Tulsi Gabbard, who is the director of National intelligence, who has been working with and for the Russians for the better part of a decade, and JD Vance, the vice president, have both come out publicly and said that what the Romanians are doing to withdraw George Eskew is part of the reason why Europe is now a bigger threat to the United States than, the Russians are, which is, you know, propaganda of which the Russians are just gleeful to have people at the top of the American system saying that. And now that you’re just you want to be able to loud to run, you should expect, those statements of the United States to get much, much firmer. 

Two things. Their number one, I can’t speak to JD Vance. That investigation is still in progress, but, Tulsi Gabbard, she’s in the process of going through all the Intel, the strictures, and basically purging anyone who knows anything about counter Russian operations, specifically about her. So that’s a problem. Second, it appears that elements within the administration are looking for a minor ally, like, say, Romania, because they’re in NATO. 

To have a formal breach of relations with in order to basically justify some of their policies and especially, set the stage for a full NATO withdrawal, by the United States. And this is shaping up to be the perfect test case for that. So the Romanians are doing what they need to to protect their system. Decision makers within the American government are very clearly working hand in glove with the Russians on this, and things are going to get a lot worse before they even pretend to tilt towards getting better.

Red Strings in Romania

Photo of far right candidate from Romanian election, Călin Georgescu

The most recent presidential election in Romania has been annulled, and surprise, surprise, it’s because of the Russians.

The Russians like to meddle about in everyone’s business, but some countries get the short end of the stick; Romania is one of them. Given its proximity to Ukraine and geographic access points, it provides a critical space that the Russians would love to control. By interfering with the elections, Russia can create divisions and weaken political resolve amongst the Romanians, with the hopes of then swooping up some Romanian territory.

Romania’s political environment isn’t squeaky clean to begin with, but the coalition of dominant parties would love to prevent Călin Georgescu from entering office. New elections will be held soon, and we’ll just have to wait and see how the Romanian people respond.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan on Geopolitics, our chosen charity partner is MedShare. They provide emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it, so we can be sure that every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence.

For those who would like to donate directly to MedShare or to learn more about their efforts, you can click this link.

Learn about medshare here

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from the crater of Mount Taranaki in Egmont National Park in New Zealand. And today we’re going to talk about Romania. Very, very short version. There’s this guy by the name of George Eskew who is a bit of a nationalist and kind of a dumbass. Really a no one, was in a couple of minor government, positions back in the 90s and really hasn’t done anything with his life since then. 

Anyway, he came in first in the first round of the presidential election that the, Romanians recently had. And, in recent days, the Electoral Commission of Romania has nullified that election. They’re going to hold it. And the reason is pretty straightforward. It’s flat out election interference by the Russians. And the Russians are trying different things in different places. 

They’re trying to see what sticks. And obviously not every culture is the same thing. So the playbook changes. But every once in a while they, like, bring everything together and push really, really, really hard to see if they can make a change. In the case of 

Romania, they pushed so hard it was really obvious. So something like 11,000 fake accounts were detected on social media with over, like, I think it was 17 million fake followers in a country with only 19 million people. 

So the interference was mad and it was obvious and it was found. And now we’re going to find out if the Romanians, once they realized the degree to which the Russians were trying to fuck around in their internal affairs, if they come up with a different opinion, there’s no guarantee that that’s how it’s going to go. 

Of course, people vote the way they vote. And when you tell people to go back to the polls so they can vote the right way, they tend to tend to get a little pissed off. Specifically, the leading Romanian parties have a reputation for corruption and being really cozy with one another, basically trading power back and forth. 

And they’ve recently joined forces to form a joint government to keep the presidency out of Georgia’s use hands. Or at least that’s the goal. Romania is generally considered one of the 2 or 3 most corrupt countries in the European Union. So the idea that there would be a robust protest vote makes a lot of sense. 

And it also makes sense that that protest vote would happen for the presidency. The Romanian system is a little bit like a flip of the French system. So in France is a very strong executive, a very strong president, but Parliament is elected separately. And if the Parliament and the presidency are from the same party, the president is in charge. 

The president picks the prime minister, the prime minister runs the government in Romania. It’s kind of the opposite, where the parliament, selects the prime minister, the president is elected separately. And if they’re from different parties, the president doesn’t have a lot of authority. Technically, he’s in charge of foreign affairs. Technically, he’s in charge of the military. 

But really, because they control the budget, the parliament still does that. So if you’re just you were to become president, he certainly wouldn’t control Parliament. And his room to maneuver would be somewhat limited. But for the Russians, this is enough, because Romania is one of the countries, after Ukraine that the Russians have shortlisted for the next wave of countries they want to invade. 

And anything that weakens the political resolve in Romania is something that can’t help but benefit the Russians in the long run. Now, specifically, the Russians are trying to weaken the resolve of the countries that border Romania to make it more difficult for the West in general to support Ukraine. And then, of course, the Russians ultimately want to make it to the Danube Delta, which would mean annexing somewhere between 20 and 30% of Romanian territory. 

Now, that’s a problem for another day. You can fault the Russians for being many things. But, planners, they’re always planners. 

So we’ll have a new first round elections pretty soon, and probably second round elections somewhere around the end of the year. 

And we will know what the Romanian people think of all of this before too long. 

Cover photo of Călin Georgescu by Wikimedia Commons