Russians, Russians Everywhere

The Russian Embassy in Warsaw, Poland

Russian “diplomats” are being expelled from Poland due to sabotage attempts. Sabotage has long been a trick up the Russians’ sleeve, as we’ve seen in similar incidents across Europe targeting infrastructure and humanitarian shipments related to Ukraine.

The Five Eyes got rid of their Russian “diplomats” when the Ukraine war started, and that list of intelligence agents was shared with lots of other countries. Sooo, there’s been some widespread diplomatic purges of these Russians.

The Russians have been redeploying these agents worldwide, but predominantly focusing on Africa and Mexico; that’s where they see their sabotage and espionage efforts working the best.

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Transcript

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from a chilly Colorado morning. Today we’re going to talk about something that’s just happened. It’s October 23rd, and the Polish government has basically kicked everybody out of the Russian consulate in Poznan, declaring them all persona non grata due to attempted sabotage throughout the country, most notably in Lwow, I believe.

This is not new. We’ve seen dozens of sabotage efforts across Europe, angering a lot of people. They’ve targeted rail systems in Sweden and the Czech Republic, been accused of arson in the United Kingdom and Germany, and have interfered with humanitarian and military shipments to Ukraine, particularly going after food and medical supplies. It’s a frustrating situation but not entirely unexpected.

When the Ukraine war started, there was a wave of diplomatic expulsions. The “Five Eyes” — the American-led intelligence network that includes Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom — and countries with robust intelligence systems, like France, Sweden, and the Dutch, began tracking Russian intelligence assets. With the onset of open conflict, countries with decent intel systems purged all KGB and GRU officers from embassies and shared lists of known agents with other nations.

At the time, about one-third of diplomats in Germany were reportedly KGB officers. Germany, however, was not very adept at intelligence, and given the political climate, many Germans believed the Russians were not a problem until the Ukraine war began. So, these Russian agents were expelled not only from NATO countries but also from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Consequently, Russia redeployed these agents elsewhere, and countries that received the lists were now aware of their status as intelligence assets.

Russia then shifted its sabotage activities globally, focusing heavily on Africa. This wave of Russian activity is partially why we’ve seen so many coups in Africa recently. There are three benefits Russia gains from these operations: changing the country’s strategic alignment and expelling Western assistance, destabilizing countries to create refugee flows that put pressure on Europe, and, crucially, seizing control of valuable assets like gold, given that Russia has been excluded from most global financial institutions. Russian groups like Wagner now operate gold mines across the Sahel, bringing gold back to Russia, refining it, and transporting it to pay for imports, often to countries like China.

Another specific hotspot is Mexico. The Mexican government sometimes resists U.S. security recommendations, making Mexico City one of the few embassies with a significant number of Russian agents. For those familiar with Cold War spycraft, this isn’t surprising; Mexico City was one of the top KGB outposts during the Cold War. The logic was that causing instability there could indirectly affect the United States. Although we haven’t seen overt sabotage in Mexico like in other regions, Russia is continuing its espionage activities.

Poland, After America

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This next country might surprise some of you, but deglobalization might give Poland its moment of fame. That’s if they play their cards right, and even then, it will be a fleeting moment, but a moment in the spotlight nonetheless.

Historically, Poland’s been vulnerable to major powers like Russia and Germany, so they’ve developed quite the arsenal for defense. Now, a window of opportunity might open as Germany and Russia face economic and demographic decline.

The time is coming for some strategic decisions to be made. Will a conflict between Russia and Poland unfold, or will Poland buddy up with Sweden? Either way, Poland’s surge to the spotlight will be short-lived but gripping.

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

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TranscripT

Hey, everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from the Eagle Nest Wilderness in central Colorado on top of Eccles Peak with a buffalo pass there below and behind me. Today, we’re going to go back into that post American series I’ve been doing every once in a while and specifically talking about one of the hot spots. And that will be Poland.

Now, Poland is one of those countries that we don’t think of very often as a major power because it has been so badly treated throughout history. It’s got major powers around it, specifically Sweden, Russia and Germany, and it tends to get gobbled up by them very easily. It’s coastline isn’t great and so the Swedes have always been able to protect upon them.

And then its land borders with both the Germans and the Russians are wide open. So there’s no chance of doing any sort of static defense. As such, the Polish military in modern times is heavy on air power with extended range fuel tanks, so that while they might not be able to stop a Russian invasion, they can reach Moscow and bomb it and at least make the Russians think twice.

That’s kind of the national strategy here. And then, of course, they’re never sure if they can rely upon the Germans, because every time the Germans have gone on the warpath, Poland is usually one of the first couple of stops. Things are going to change over the course of the next 20 years for a number of reasons. But really the biggest chunk is economics and demography.

The Germans and the Russians have two of the worst demographics structures on the planet. And while Sweden is an up and coming power again and it can definitely punch above its weight, this is not the 1600s. And Sweden today has under 10 million people. So even if it punches like triple its weight, Poland still has 40 million people.

Also, the Swedes these days are not looking to expand into empire. So, you know, there’s that anyway. What this means is that we’re seeing an opening window of opportunity for Poland as the German system fails because of demographic decline and economic collapse. Remember, this is a country that exports everything. So anything happens to globalization, they’re done. Also, they can’t maintain their workforce for more than another ten years.

Russia is only slightly behind that in terms of demographic decline. In fact, once you look at the health figures, it’s probably worse. Everyone in Germany at least is in decent health. You’ve got a lot of alcoholism and a lot of HIV and a lot of tuberculosis in Russia. You don’t have any of those in Poland, which means that for the Russians, things are going to go one of two directions.

Either number one, they’re going to win hand over fist in Ukraine, and then they’re going to come for Poland. And we’re going to have a knockdown, drag out fight at some point over the next 20 years, the Russian wave will crest and then it will fall back because they won’t be able to maintain their military structures. And we’ll have the poles being more and more and more aggressive, assuming they don’t fall completely and pushing into the former Russian space in order to break it up so nothing like that can ever happen again.

For those of you who don’t think that that can happen, it’s happened before. The Russians call it the time of troubles and that brings us to the second possibility that in Ukraine, that this is all that the Russians can do and this war will break them in the next few years. And then the Poles will push more and more aggressively into the Russian space to make sure that nothing like that ever happens again.

Remember, in the 1600s, 16 04i believe the Poles actually occupied Moscow and held it for a generation. Only this time the Russians would be in economic and demographic decline, if not outright collapse. So it might actually last a little bit longer. Now, for those of you who are Polish, don’t do too much chest beating. And a lot of things have to happen.

Poland, like Romania, really only does well when the country’s on its edges are weak. The problem you have in Poland is it’s just big enough to think that it can pull this off by itself, whereas the Romanians know that they have to partner with somebody. Now there are two paths for the Poles to take. Option number one is economic collapse and statist economy, followed by a military expansion.

That’s probably the most likely outcome. Remember that Poland, today’s economically wealthy because of its relationship with German manufacturing. If that goes away, option number two is the sweet step and become the new partner, both demographically, economically, strategically. And you get Polish land power with Swedish amphibious power. And that can be a very potent combination in the Baltic, sharing a lot of common values and maybe even having a vector of American assistance in their boats.

Kind of a the playbook, as I see it right now. And finally, before polls get too excited, keep in mind that Polish demographics are not all that much better than Russian or German. I mean, they’re better, but they’re aging just as fast, just from a younger base. So if we’re looking at an end to the German and the Russian systems over the next ten to 20 to 30 years, we’re also looking at a complete fabrication of the Polish system over the next 20 to 50 years.

So there’s going to be a window here where Poland becomes the most powerful land power in the region, and it is a moment in time. And what the Poles decide to do with that is going to reshape this region for at least the next century. All right, you guys later.