Nukes for All! (But Finland First)

nuclear bomb with a mushroom in the desert

Finland knows all too well what a confrontation with Russia would mean. So, the Finns are preparing…

As traditional security guarantees begin to fall apart (i.e., the U.S. signaling reduced willingness to provide military support in future European conflicts), it won’t just be Finland looking for a nuclear deterrent. Other countries near Russia will likely follow suit, and then nations in East Asia will jump on the train, and then everyone will have nukes!

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Transcript

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here. No fancy backdrop today. Sorry. The news we need to discuss happened last week on the 18th of June. And it’s that the finished parliament, with a two thirds majority, voted to basically legalized nukes. The transport of them, the storage of them and the production of them. Finland has always been in a difficult position vis AV1 country, Russia. 

They only have a few million people in Finland. They’re all concentrated basically on the southern coast and in and around the capital of Helsinki. They’ve always faced down the Russians, who outnumber them in any meaningful fight, several to one. The last big fight was the Winter War of 1942 1941, where in some of the battles, the Finns inflicted 40 to 1 casualty ratios on the Russians, which is crazy. 

But eventually they knew they would have to suffer some sort of peace deal, and in the peace deal, they gave up territory where almost a quarter of their population lived. There is no version of any future in which Russia exists, where another war is not inevitable. And when the Ukraine war started back in 2022, the current phase of the Ukraine war started back in 2022. 

Sorry, the Finns knew that eventually that fight was going to be coming for them from the Russian point of view. There is no version of their western periphery that doesn’t include, among other things, a big chunk of Poland, all of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and another big chunk of Finland 

The Russians feel they need to occupy all of that in order to have a better cordon in a defensive manner. That’s great for the Russians, but it’s bad if you happen to live in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Finland. And so the fins are rearming and they’re getting ready for that fight. And they know at the end of the day, there is no guarantee that they can win. Because just like the Winter War in 1940 and 1941, they are massively outnumbered, even if they can get allies to come to their aid. 

Well, in just the last week, the United States said that if there is a war with the Russians, they’re not sending any appreciable hardware to assist. And that absolutely colored the decision making in Finland. So the Finns will not simply be hosting somebody else’s nukes, they’re going to develop their own deterrent, and they will not be alone, because the Finns aren’t the only ones in this situation. 

We’re also going to see nuclear programs expanding in Sweden and Poland and Germany and Romania, all countries that already have the technical skills necessary to make a nuclear program a reality. We’re also probably going to see something like this in East Asia, where the United States is equally odd these days, and that means you should expect to see meaningful nuclear programs in Japan, in Korea, South Korea and Taiwan as well. 

The only way you can convince the Finns and the Japanese and the rest that this is not necessary, is for a robust multilateral alliance guaranteed by the United States. But that is exactly the circumstances that the Trump administration is unraveling. So instead, we’re going to get at least another half a dozen nuclear powers in the broader world.

Finnish Presidential Elections and Anti-Russian Sentiment

Finnish politics are not something that often make the headlines, but with a marked shift away from “Finlandization” (when a smaller country remains neutral to appease a larger and more powerful neighboring country) comes some unfamiliar coverage.

Finland has become one of the largest and most assertive supporters of Ukraine, both materially and diplomatically. The most recent presidential elections reflect these anti-Russian sentiments, with candidates competing to take the strongest stance on large ticket items like security issues and more nuanced issues like revoking Finnish citizenship for Russian-Finnish citizens.

This election is just a glimpse at the complexities of Russian relations within Eastern European countries and a signal of what might be coming…

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Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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TranscripT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here. Coming to you from the slopes of Mount Lower with Mauna Kea there in the background, surrounded by volcanic, you was going to go all the way up to the top, but apparently the volcano decided to destroy the road. So whatever. Anyway, that means you get a bonus video. The big news, it’s happening today. We were seeing this on Sunday, the 28th, is that there are presidential elections in Finland and for the first time ever, they matter.

So since the Ukraine war, we haven’t had a lot of electoral contests in Europe in the context of the change security environment. This is really the first one that matters. It matters for more than one reason. Finland. Well, there’s a term for it familiarization. The idea that you’re scared of your bigger neighbor. So you plot a neutral policy in order to make sure that they’re not aggravated.

And this is the position that Stalin forced upon the Finns back at the end of World War Two. And so presidential elections have always been about that debate of just how friendly can we be to the Russians so that they don’t decide to invade us. And that has been the case now for over a half century. And the outgoing president was known as the the Putin whisperer because she had a tight personal relationship.

But with the Ukraine war that has changed. And Finland is arguably of the of the real countries, the sizable countries that are assisting the Ukrainians, the one who has provided the most material support per person as well as leading the charge in terms of diplomatic efforts, and has also jumped on board NAITO, which is something that they assiduously avoided for the last 70 years in order to not aggravate the Russians.

Now, the presidential contest is a beauty contest about who can be the most anti-Russian, who will take the strongest position on any type of security issue. And so we’re kind of seeing the debate take place in three general arenas. The first is the Ukraine, where proper who’s going to promise more aid, who’s going to be more of a hawk?

The second one has to do with citizenship. There are a substantial number of dual citizens who are Russian and Finnish citizenship. And the debate at the presidential level now is whether or not to revoke their Finnish citizenship if they do not surrender their Russian citizenship. And that’s important enough as it is, but it also is carrying out into European foreign policy because Finland is not the country in Europe that has the largest percentage of ethnic Russians among its population.

That would be Latvia, with Estonia and Lithuania coming up in second and third place. So there’s always been a little bit of a quiet human rights debate within Europe about the position of the ethnic Russians in those countries. With Finland trying to take the position of the ethnic Russians in order to mollify Moscow. Well, that is not the case anymore.

The debate is whether or not these people should be kicked out, whether they should be forced to change languages, whether they should lose their European Union citizenship. The fact that the Finns have changed so much in two years is just a testament to just how brutal war in Ukraine is and how close it hits to home to countries in these regions.

Something to consider if you don’t live in Eastern Europe for anyone else in the world, the countries from Finland to Estonia to Latvia to Poland, to Romania and Bulgaria. Now these are the countries who have the most experience of living under Russian rule or fighting the Russians, and they’re the ones who have been basically training their military in order to support the Ukrainians in the conflict because they know what happens if they don’t.

Anyway, by the time you view this, the polls will have opened in Finland and we should have results in the not too distant future as Europe’s most neutral country becomes its most aggressive. A One more thing for those of you who are not fueled by issues of democracy versus repression and mass rapes and or how about illegal migrants?

Yeah, so the Russians have been flying people in from South Asia and the Middle East and herding them through the force of northern Russia and forcing them through the Finnish border. So that really has the Finns all cheesed off to.

Russia and China Gang Up on Finland

The schoolyard bullies are back at it again. Russia is funneling waves of migrants into the Finnish border, and China has wreaked havoc on the Gulf of Finland by dragging an anchor across the sea floor.

These are clearly intentional and deliberate actions, but what do they signify? In all likelihood, these indicate potential cooperation between Russia and China in different global theaters – challenging the ability of the US to focus on multiple fronts.

We’ve discussed this in the past, and I’m not too worried about the United States’ ability to handle both Russia and China simultaneously. Click below for a refresher:

Can the US Military Fight Russia and China?

Besides Russia (once again) underestimating Finland’s support network, these actions will likely spark some changes in naval patrol patterns for the US.

Prefer to read the transcript? Click here

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:

First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.

Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

And then there’s you.

Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

Support medshare's ukraine fund
Support medshare's global efforts

TranscripT

Hey everybody. Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Phenix, where I’m on my last business trip of the year. Very exciting. Today we’re going to talk about something that the Russians and the Chinese are doing against Finland, of all places. We’ve had two big events over the course of the last few weeks. Number one, the Russians started funneling illegal migrants from Central Asia and South Asia into the Finnish border.

Clearly, this was intentional, clearly that it was premeditated because you don’t go from having less than one person a day to almost a thousand in an area that the Russians consider a security zone. Second, the this one, Solaris the Chinese in with the container ship new new polar bear. Makes more sense in Mandarin dropped their anchor in the Gulf of Finland between Finland and Estonia and then proceeded to drag the anchor on the seabed for about 20 miles until they suffered a telecommunications cable and damaged pipeline or sorry, it was an electricity transmission and make them some cable damaged pipeline.

Again, that’s not something that happens by accident. And in both cases, the Russians, the Chinese are kind of going like, what do you do about it? And it’s not clear exactly what anyone is going to do about it, because it’s one of those definitely less than war scenarios. So we’ve got three things going on here. First is this is practice for the Russians and the Chinese.

They’ve never really functionally cooperated before. They’ve certainly never coordinated their actions. But in doing two things in different theaters versus the same country that has managed to displease the Russians of late by joining Dito, this is practice for kind of a larger scale. Well, the U.S. does not consider itself capable of being involved in two major military operations at the same time, even though one would be naval and China and one would be on the land in Ukraine.

But, you know, putting that to the side. So anything that forces the United States to look in two directions at once is kind of a win in above itself, even if nothing comes from it. Second, there is the issue of implications for action. And we’re already seeing NATO countries changing their naval patrol patterns to look out for things like the Chinese.

Because, you know, when you’re dragging your anchor for 20 miles, it’s not like that is a normal bit of operation. Oh, by the way, they found sea anchor. They matched it to the vessel in question. So the Chinese are, you know, doing their normal association and lying thing. But the Finns and the Estonians really have no doubt as to what went down here.

But then there’s the third issue, and that’s the target choice. Now, until recently, Finland was officially a neutral country because it was terrified of facing the Soviet Union. And then eventually the Russians. It’s not that they think they’re weak. It’s that they know that they’re outnumbered. So if you go back to World War Two, the Finnish chapter of that conflict was called the Winter War.

And when Stalin’s troops came in, they were massacred in the winter conflict, looking at 2241 casualty ratios throughout the winter. But when the snows finally went away and the advantage of just being able to ski through the Russian forces went away. The Finns were forced to sue for peace and accept a deal that gave up territory on which about a quarter of their population prewar lived.

It’s something the Finns have never really forgotten. And so ever since then, the Finnish military has basically prepared for one fight. What happens when the Russians finally come? But this is a creative country that has shown that it can punch well, well, well, well above its weight. It arguably has the most effective military in terms of per capita in natto.

And they’re starting to trade with nature now that they’re members. And they just kicked everybody’s ass in the biathlon competition last winter, which, you know, they’re terrifying because that’s one of the reasons why the casualty ratios were so high, because these are all natural sharpshooters and these are all natural ski folks anyway. Also, when the Finns are involved, it’s not just the Finns.

They’ve got their kind of little brothers, if you will, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. But more importantly, they get along excellently with their other Scandinavian cousins in Denmark and Sweden and Norway. You know, the Vikings, not to mention excellent relations with the United Kingdom and now the United States. So basically what the Russians have done is pick someone that they thought was on the fringe they thought was alone.

But primitive is representative of the fact that Russian decision making at the diplomatic and security level has really broken down. They’ve kind of forgotten that even Stalin was a little bit scared of the Finns. And so they walked around and now they’re going to find out.

 

Finland: NATO’s Newest Member

Today’s video comes to you from Mt. Cook National Park in New Zealand.

Finland got the green light and has officially become NATO’s newest member. While the Finns are breathing a sigh of relief, we must consider how this could change the scope of the war.

Finland and Russia have some history together. From the Winter War to Finlandization, the resulting baggage of this intertwined past delayed the Finns from joining NATO. Finland could operate independently from Russia for years, with the caveat of Moscow running all security decisions. Making NATO a big no-no.

However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has signaled to the Finns that this is a war for survival, which puts a bright red target on Finland’s back. Finland might not have removed that target by joining NATO, but it’s not quite as red as before. Now it’s Sweden’s turn…

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

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