Beijing Doubles Down on Zero COVID…and Lockdowns

Beijing announced yesterday that it was extending its Zero COVID policy until 2027. This is a direct result of the Chinese government’s failure to develop an effective domestic vaccine, and its steadfast refusal to rely on the safe, effective mRNA vaccines already in use in much of the world. Given the lack of functional vaccine policy, the age of the Chinese population and the timeline for Beijing to develop anything approaching a useful mRNA vaccine domestically, this timeline makes sense. But it lays bare the absolute desperation of the Chinese Communist Party. 

As absolutely detrimental these policies will be for the average Chinese citizen–and if past is prologue, there will be terrible costs to pay economically, socially, and individually–they also underscore the precarious place China plays in the global economy. Which is bad. China rose to prominence in the post-Cold War era as the country and the government most willing to leverage its low labor costs and at times near-nonexistent regulatory environment to convince the worlds’ manufacturers to relocate much of their supply chains onto Chinese soil. What does the future hold? For manufacturers, at least, the constant specter of shut downs as Beijing bungles outbreak after outbreak. COVID isn’t going away, and barring a massive shift in the CCP’s policy’s toward foreign vaccines, the Chinese factory worker, and transportation worker, and dock worker, etc remain at the mercy of a virus that shows no signs of stopping, and a government that shows no sign of stepping up.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

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Tianjin, COVID, and Losing Chinese Labor

Several signs point to THE possibility of Chinese officials instituting at least a partial lockdown of the northern port city of Tianjin as early as this weekend. The largest northern Chinese port, Tianjin is also a city of over 12 million people, and its port is vital for delivering goods–bulk ores, coal, liquid fuels–for the region’s heavy industries and textile manufacturing. 

The Omicron variant has already been detected in the city, notably in the Beichen and Dongli districts, where local health officials mandated localized testing and quarantine restrictions on May 16. Widespread testing through these areas–and the removal of tens of thousands of residents into forced quarantine–now looks like it might spread throughout the city. Local officials have also already gone ahead and identified a scapegoat: imported frozen food products.

What’s a little authoritarian lockdown without some trade nationalism?

Tianjin already experienced a partial lockdown in January of this year. Partial in part due to the city’s vital role as the primary port serving Beijing, and also a domestic concern over optics during the Olympics. As we’ve seen from reports and local social media uploads, the lockdowns at the very least cause an undue amount of stress on local Chinese residents. At their worst, they reveal the ugliest face of an authoritarian regime that uses drones to threaten its citizens who dare to scream out in hunger in the middle of the night.

Beyond the human toll of these lockdowns, the Chinese economy and manufacturing base is increasingly finding itself disconnected from global trade. China’s financial hub of Shanghai is currently in its seventh week of lock-down, the southern port city and manufacturing hub of Guangzhou is under lockdown, more and more districts of the capital city of Beijing are entering a so-called “slow motion” lockdown. If we add in Tianjin, as it increasingly looks like we might, that’s several of China’s largest trading and industrial zones, plus the administrative core, under lockdown.

Even in cases where the government seeks to ease lockdowns for critical manufacturing and port operations, worker shortages in China are causing all manner of delays and supply chain dislocations. Over a hundred ships are waiting off of the port of Shanghai as of writing (Hong Kong and Shenzen have nearly 200). Lest you think that labor issues have been sorted out at Western ports, let me remind you that there is still a wait of over three weeks for ships to dock at the port of Vancouver.

It is hard to overexaggerate the role of the Chinese worker in our current globalized economy, and the impact Chinese labor has had on the post-Cold War system. All of that is going away. In return? Rising labor costs, at a minimum. Assuming you can find the workers. Think inflation is bad now? Just wait.

Nervous? Join us June 8th for a webinar on the global geopolitical environment that will be driving US inflation for years to come. Sign up information at the link below.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Credit, and the End of the World

My fourth book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is scheduled for release on June 14. In coming weeks we will be sharing graphics and excerpts, along with info on how to preorder.

Add the extravagances and exaggerations of the fiat era to the excesses and eruptions of the demographic moment and we have experienced the largest credit surges in human history. In the United States we know the biggest chunk of those surges as the subprime era. From 2000, when the subprime industry was birthed, to 2007, when ended, total credit in the United States roughly doubled. The ensuing crash from such irrational exuberance knocked roughly 5 percent off of U.S. GDP in the two years before the economy found its footing.

Doubling of credit. Five percent economic drop. That’s a good baseline. Let’s take a quick look around:

The credit picture of Brazil is a reasonable echo of Greece: a sixfold increase, peaking in 2014. In that year investor sentiment and the Brazilian political system broke at the same time, triggering a political crisis and deep recession that at the time of this writing shows no sign of abating. Making matters worse, Brazil’s constitution and currency only date back to the 1990s. Not only is this modern Brazil’s first true political and economic crisis, but it is a full-blown constitutional crisis that hits at the very bedrock of everything that makes Brazil…Brazil. Assuming for the moment that the Brazilian political system regenerates in short order (and there is no sign of that) and that Brazil’s governing institutions suffer no additional damage (and that seems sheer fantasy), Brazil faces years of severe recession simply to recover from their credit overexpansion. Brazil isn’t looking down the maw of a lost decade, but instead at two. At least.

With the combination of a fairly diversified economy, government policies welcoming immigration, and a bevy of mineral reserves big enough to feed insatiable Chinese demand, Australia has avoided recession for a generation. Others noticed, and foreign money has funneled into the country to take advantage of the longest continuous period of economic growth in human history. That has turned the Great Down Under into the most over credited of the Western countries to not yet experience a credit collapse. Credit has increased sixfold since 2000. Housing and household debt are of course the expected bugaboos, but the credit inflows have pushed the Australian dollar up to uncomfortably unsustainable highs, eroding the competitiveness of every economic sector outside of mining. Any effort the government has taken to decrease demand with regulatory hammers has been overwhelmed by a tax code that not only encourages property ownership, but in fact encourages those already owning residential property to purchase more. This would be a problem anywhere, but in Australia it is particularly acute. Oz might seem like a place with a lot of land, but the Outback is beyond useless to residential real estate. The vast bulk of the Aussie population lives in fewer than ten largely disconnected metro regions, sharply limiting availability and driving up the cost of building new housing inventory. This will blow.
 
At the time of this paragraph’s addition on February 28, 2022, Russia is being melon-scooped out of global finance as punishment for the Ukraine War, the Russian Central Bank included. By the time this book publishes, the world will have a fascinating, horrific case study of true financial disintegration. Nor is Russia done. Beset with a population aging into decrepitude and a system that has given up educating the next generation, Russia’s credit collapse is but one of a phalanx of factors capable of ending the Russian state. The question isn’t will the Russians go out swinging—Russian’s invasion of Ukraine is testament to that—but instead, who else will they swing at? Over-credited countries beware. Credit collapses can be caused by any number of actions or inactions. They do not require a war. Or sanctions.
 
The absolute financial blowout that is China has generated the largest and most unsustainable credit boom in human history both in absolute and relative measures. The Chinese will exit the modern world just as they entered it: with a big splash. The only question is when. If I had the answer to that you wouldn’t be reading this book, because instead of struggling through edits I’d be idling away my days on the Peter Virgin Islands.

Here at Zeihan On Geopolitics we select a single charity to sponsor. We have two criteria:
 
First, we look across the world and use our skill sets to identify where the needs are most acute. Second, we look for an institution with preexisting networks for both materials gathering and aid distribution. That way we know every cent of our donation is not simply going directly to where help is needed most, but our donations serve as a force multiplier for a system already in existence. Then we give what we can.
 
Today, our chosen charity is a group called Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until future notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.
 
And then there’s you.
 
Our newsletters and videologues are not only free, they will always be free. We also will never share your contact information with anyone. All we ask is that if you find one of our releases in any way useful, that you make a donation to Medshare. Over one third of Ukraine’s pre-war population has either been forced from their homes, kidnapped and shipped to Russia, or is trying to survive in occupied lands. This is our way to help who we can. Please, join us.

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S UKRAINE FUND

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT MEDSHARE’S EFFORTS GLOBALLY

Where in the World: Home, and Cruise Missiles

The United States and United Kingdom have shouldered out the French in a deal to supply submarines to Australia. And not just any submarines, potentially nuclear–powered submarines.  France was poised to ink a deal worth more than $65 billion for sale of its diesel-electric subs. The deal comes as part of a new alliance among the three anglophone states—AUKUS—and will see either US or British-supplied subs to boost Australia’s role in upholding maritime security in the Indo-Pacific.

China, the unstated but obvious target of such a movie, has responded with the expected frustration and condemnation of “outdated Cold War” thinking. But it is France who has provided the most popcorn-worth apoplexy. Which makes sense. A new global order is underfoot, and the French are not front and center. Also, it’s several tens of billions of dollars their industries lost out on. Also, they were supposedly only given a day or so of advance notice. The French have even recalled their ambassadors from the US and UK for consultations. It’s all a delicious soap opera.

As fun as it is to be on the outside looking in, the submarine deal and the destruction of the deal that preceded it are not the real story here. The bigger story here is that the Australia broader exchange in military technology and expertise between the Australians, the US, and the UK. I’m thinking particularly of the fact that Australia is slated to receive some pretty capable ship-and-submarine launched cruise missiles. Some with a range exceeding 1500 miles. Australia having the ability to strike Malacca from its own territories, and giving it some nuclear-powered teeth against Chinese maritime ambitions is a huge geopolitical development, and not just in the broader Indo-Pacific basin.

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The economic lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 left many without jobs and additional tens of millions of people, including children, without reliable food. Feeding America works with food manufacturers and suppliers to provide meals for those in need and provides direct support to America’s food banks.

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Where in the World: Crater Lake, and Semiconductors

So, what keeps me up at night?

The current global semiconductor supply chain. Distinct capabilities exist in separate supply chains and manufacturing bases—lower end supply from China, higher-end chips from places like Taiwan and South Korea. And a critical middle-ground from Southeast Asian suppliers like Thailand and Malaysia.

Shortages in the supply chain—whether related to COVID-19, drought, or shifting consumption patterns—can take months to resolve. This is due as much to the actual process of silicon wafer and chip manufacturing as it is the nature of the supply chain itself. Northeast and Southeast Asian suppliers do not compete in the same arena or possess analogous skill sets. China cannot step in to produce the mid-tier chips Malaysia and China supply to global automakers (with many auto factories currently idling due to a lack of supply) and even if the Koreans and Taiwanese wanted to retool their entire factories to supply the automotive industry there is a dearth of global capacity to step in to offset the drop in high-end chip manufacturing. And this doesn’t even begin to consider the fact that regardless of where the chips are made, most are designed in the US.

The global semi-conductor industry is one of the biggest success stories, and thereby one of the most dependent, of the Global Order. If my forecast about a collapse of the global trade order is correct, it will realistically take years for countries like the US to recreate a multi-layered semiconductor manufacturing base domestically. The rest of the world will struggle to maintain any output on their own.

If you enjoy our free newsletters, the team at Zeihan on Geopolitics asks you to consider donating to Feeding America.

The economic lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 left many without jobs and additional tens of millions of people, including children, without reliable food. Feeding America works with food manufacturers and suppliers to provide meals for those in need and provides direct support to America’s food banks.

Food pantries are facing declining donations from grocery stores with stretched supply chains. At the same time, they are doing what they can to quickly scale their operations to meet demand. But they need donations – they need cash – to do so now.

Feeding America is a great way to help in difficult times.

The team at Zeihan on Geopolitics thanks you and hopes you continue to enjoy our work.

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Where in the World: Laramie, and Rare Earths

Concerns are rising over Chinese dominance in the realm of rare earths metals processing. This is a problem that I spend a lot of time never worrying about. 

Despite their name, rare earths aren’t all that rare. The byproducts of other metals refining and production (such as lead) and if anything, the production process takes a lot of time and effort. Chinese state policy of subsidizing industry (and caring absolutely not one whit about environmental impacts) allowed the Chinese to become leaders in rare earths metals processing at a truly global scale. And the rest of the world has largely been happy to outsource their needs to subsidized Chinese production. 

This isn’t to say that the Chinese couldn’t–and haven’t–attempted some shenanigans. But manufacturing states dependent on Chinese production have been steadily building up strategic reserves, and countries like the United States, Australia, and Malaysia have been increasing investments into processing capacity. There will be a ramp up process, six to twelve months at most. Some supply tightness, but nothing insurmountable. Definitely not something worth keeping you up at night. 

If you enjoy our free newsletters, the team at Zeihan on Geopolitics asks you to consider donating to Feeding America.

The economic lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 left many without jobs and additional tens of millions of people, including children, without reliable food. Feeding America works with food manufacturers and suppliers to provide meals for those in need and provides direct support to America’s food banks.

Food pantries are facing declining donations from grocery stores with stretched supply chains. At the same time, they are doing what they can to quickly scale their operations to meet demand. But they need donations – they need cash – to do so now.

Feeding America is a great way to help in difficult times.

The team at Zeihan on Geopolitics thanks you and hopes you continue to enjoy our work.

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Where in the World: Split Rock, and Afghan Minerals

Speculation over Afghanistan’s potential mineral wealth is just that–speculation. What we do know about the hard reality of the country’s geography, infrastructure and development profile readily explains why we’re still talking about Afghan mineral wealth in the realm of potential trillions–it might certainly be there, but no one’s done the hard, serious work to find out for sure. 

And China is certainly not going to be the one to do it. Chinese involvement in Afghanistan isn’t going to be fueled by a desire to do serious survey and exploration work, building out roads and rail lines, developing a meaningful power grid, and then getting into the serious work of mining. In a land-locked country. Is China then going to truck ores and minerals into Pakistan and/or Iran for shipment? Or up and over the Hindu Kush to its sparsely-inhabited Western frontier? While battling militants and tribal war lords all along the way? Very likely not.

America did not leave behind a golden goose in the mountains of Afghanistan for the Chinese–or anyone–to come along and scoop up. Instead, China’s interests in Afghanistan lie in the same bucket of all of the neighboring states’: security, limiting cross-border militancy, and working toward some hope of containing refugee and militant flows. 

If you enjoy our free newsletters, the team at Zeihan on Geopolitics asks you to consider donating to Feeding America.

The economic lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 left many without jobs and additional tens of millions of people, including children, without reliable food. Feeding America works with food manufacturers and suppliers to provide meals for those in need and provides direct support to America’s food banks.

Food pantries are facing declining donations from grocery stores with stretched supply chains. At the same time, they are doing what they can to quickly scale their operations to meet demand. But they need donations – they need cash – to do so now.

Feeding America is a great way to help in difficult times.

The team at Zeihan on Geopolitics thanks you and hopes you continue to enjoy our work.

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Life After Trump, Part VIII: The Crisis List—China

[mk_mini_callout]
Read the other installments in this series:
 
Life after Trump, Part I: Living in the Lightning
Life after Trump, Part II: Searching for Truth in a Flood of Freedom
Life After Trump, Part III: The End of the Republican Alliance
Life After Trump, Part IV: Building a Better Democrat…Maybe
Life After Trump, Part V: The Opening Roster
Life After Trump, Part VI: The Crisis List—Russia
Life After Trump, Part VII: The Crisis List—The Middle East
Life After Trump, Part VIII: The Crisis List—China
[/mk_mini_callout]

I don’t see China the way most do.
 
Where others see a rising naval power, I see a trapped coastal fleet incapable of projecting power, much less patrolling its far-flung economic interests.
 
Where others see the workshop of the world, I see a radically unstable system propped up by Enron-style finance which survives only due to the strategic largesse of increasingly-hostile foreign powers.
 
Where others see 1.4 billion people, I see one of history’s fastest aging and shrinking demographics in a country that will – in the best-case scenario – see its population shrink by half this century.
 
Where others see swarms of exports, I see a system faltering from a lack of domestic consumption that could lead to economic ruin at any time, but most certainly this decade.
 
Where others see the only major economy to grow in 2020, I see a system so broken that most of its “growth” is simply from shoving unsold inventory into warehouses, something I last saw en masse during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.
 
But above all, where others see a malevolent, conniving government leadership scrupulously implementing a century-long master plan for global domination, I see a terrified cadre that broadly sees China as I do, and so is instituting a North Korea-style political and information lockdown in the desperate hope of preventing China’s inevitable return to its historical mean of civil war, civil collapse, and mass famine.
 
In this newsletter, I’m not going to go down the line of reasons why China is doomed. For those of you familiar with my work, you’re probably getting a bit sick of that. For those of you who are new to my work, the full and detailed hit-list is best addressed in Chapters Two through Four of Disunited Nations, the section that deals with what makes for successful countries and empires.
 
This series is instead about the issues that will be facing the freshman Biden administration, and I’d be remiss if I left China out.
 
The first and perhaps most important takeaway is that the United States public – regardless of political persuasion – has turned broadly sharply anti-Chinese on issues political, economic and strategic. This isn’t a Trump thing or a Biden thing, but instead a broadscale cultural transformation intertwined with a mix of populist and geopolitical factors that have been unfolding for well over a decade.
 
Biden is many things, but first and foremost his personal ideologies tack with the winds. In my personal opinion this doesn’t make him leadership material, but for the Chinese it means that the power of the American executive will lean towards doing what the American political mood demands: confrontation.
 
In Biden’s early days that means not simply leaving in place, but publicly and unapologetically reaffirming, several long-standing Trump-era China policies. Trump’s trade war is now bipartisan. Trump’s anti-China tariffs remain firmly in place. Trump’s anti-China sanctions – most notably ones that include Huawei and the Chinese equivalent of Chevron – aren’t going anywhere. Trump’s ever-tightening sanctions on Iran, once a leading Chinese oil supplier, have been confirmed as the new norm.
 
Even some of Trump’s on-the-way-out-the-door policy grenades have been openly embraced as founding principles of the new administration.
 
In Trump’s last month the administration changed policies to enable any federal government official to visit Taiwan at any time in their official capacity as full representatives of the U.S. government. That’s only a baby step away from full diplomatic recognition of Taiwan as an independent nation (because, well, Taiwan is an independent nation). Biden confirmed his agreement with the shift on his first day.
 
Similarly, in its last days the Trump administration formally recognized the Chinese genocide of Uighurs in the far western Chinese province as an actual genocide (because, well, it is a genocide). Biden put his personal stamp on that recognition as well, also on his first day.
 
What I found to be one of the late-Trump administration’s more notable inactions was when Iran seized a South Korean vessel in the Persian Gulf, ostensibly for the Koreans abiding by American sanctions against Iran. The Persian Gulf is the source of half of the world’s internationally traded oil. As recently as a decade ago such state piracy in the world’s most strategic waterway would have warranted direct and prolonged American presidential and military attention. Trump did nothing. Biden has done nothing. The Americans no longer give any number of pieces of excrement about global oil market stability. And as the world’s largest oil importer and sporting a navy that cannot project power to the Persian Gulf, the Chinese are and should be exceedingly concerned.
 
Biden, of course, has come up with a few thoughts of his own. Crackdowns in Hong Kong and human rights in Tibet, two issues that Trump largely ignored, are back in fashion in Washington. So far TeamBiden has only offered rhetoric on the topics, but state policy is likely to be updated up to and including some degree of sanctions within a few weeks.
 
Trump also tended to play down territorial disputes, particularly as regards the South China Sea – a shallow waterway that Beijing hilariously (and under international law, illegally) claims in its entirety despite nearly all of it being closer to Vietnam, the Philippines or Malaysia than to the Chinese mainland. In his first week Biden ordered nothing less than two aircraft carrier battle groups to sail nice-and-slow through the entire area in mocking defiance of Chinese claims.

But perhaps the bit that has me most interested in the weeks to come is Biden’s new trade negotiator: Katherine Tai. The U.S. Trade Representative typically has few friends. It is his or her job to both enforce and negotiate all trade deals the United States is a party to. Trump’s USTR, Robert Lighthizer, successfully completed deals with the Koreans and Japanese as well as an updating of the NAFTA accords. He is an old trade hand seeped in the fractious world of international negotiations.
 
Tai is…not. She has never managed a large staff. She has never participated in a meaningful large-scale international negotiation, much less led one. She did work for the USTR’s office under the Obama administration, although doing nothing that would be confused with a leadership role. Until a few weeks ago she was simply a high-ranking Congressional staffer. Knowledgeable about the issues? Absolutely and undeniably. Heavily seasoned in the world of international diplomacy? Absolutely and undeniably not.
 
What Tai is is America-focused. Until now her job has been to fine-tune Lighthizer’s deals so that when they are brought to the Congressional floors they enjoy as broad and as bipartisan support as is humanly possible. She successfully rode point on NAFTA2’s ratification with House Ways & Means (by far Congress’ most powerful committee). Unlike Lighthizer who had a reputation for intentionally abrasive and supremely dislikable hypercompetence, everyone in Congress apparently loves Katherine Tai. To my knowledge she is the only person in human history that both Elizabeth Warren and Rand Paul have said (obliquely) kind things about. Heady stuff.
 
Tai is not a negotiator, but instead a trade lawyer. And that tells me everything I need to know about Biden’s developing trade agenda. There isn’t one in the traditional sense. Biden hasn’t been shy about noting that he has no interest in signing any trade deals until the coronavirus crisis is firmly in the rear-view mirror. In the United States, accelerated vaccine development suggests the second half of the year is looking up. But the rest of the advanced world isn’t going to achieve mass vaccination until very close to year’s end, and the developing world will take (at minimum) a year more. Aside from a deal with a post-Brexit and increasingly economically desperate United Kingdom, there aren’t likely to be any meaningful deals negotiated during the Biden administration at all.
 
But, again, Tai is a trade lawyer. She wasn’t brought on to negotiate new deals. She was brought on to sue any country violating the letter or the spirit of U.S. trade law…which is pretty much everyone. If I lived in Europe, I’d be very worried about this (a trade war is imminent), but the foreign power Tai has the most direct experience with is China itself; During Tai’s stint with the USTR, she spent some time as chief council for China trade enforcement. That’s a fancy way of saying she knows how to sue Beijing.
 
Oh yeah, and one more thing: while Tai is a full-blooded American (born in Connecticut), ethnically, she is Taiwanese. It doesn’t really matter whether Biden meant for his new USTR’s background to matter. It will. The Chinese Communist Party perceives the collective actions and omissions out of the new administration as a full-court press against the interests of the CCP. They aren’t wrong.
 
And they’ll be looking for ways to push back.

If you enjoy our free newsletters, the team at Zeihan on Geopolitics asks you to consider donating to Feeding America.

The economic lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 left many without jobs and additional tens of millions of people, including children, without reliable food. Feeding America works with food manufacturers and suppliers to provide meals for those in need and provides direct support to America’s food banks.

Food pantries are facing declining donations from grocery stores with stretched supply chains. At the same time, they are doing what they can to quickly scale their operations to meet demand. But they need donations – they need cash – to do so now.

Feeding America is a great way to help in difficult times.

The team at Zeihan on Geopolitics thanks you and hopes you continue to enjoy our work.

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Video Dispatch III: Chinese Challenges on the Horizon

The results of the November presidential election are unlikely to change the trajectory of US-Chinese relations over the past decade. But Beijing’s biggest challenges don’t lie with the US. As the Chinese government continues to secure its near-abroad, there’s one long-term challenge the mainland is most eager to solve: Taiwan.

If you enjoy our free newsletters, the team at Zeihan on Geopolitics asks you to consider donating to Feeding America.

The economic lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 left many without jobs and additional tens of millions of people, including children, without reliable food. Feeding America works with food manufacturers and suppliers to provide meals for those in need and provides direct support to America’s food banks.

Food pantries are facing declining donations from grocery stores with stretched supply chains. At the same time, they are doing what they can to quickly scale their operations to meet demand. But they need donations – they need cash – to do so now.

Feeding America is a great way to help in difficult times.

The team at Zeihan on Geopolitics thanks you and hopes you continue to enjoy our work.

[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ url=”https://secure.feedingamerica.org/site/Donation2?idb=1389848845&df_id=26876&26876.donation=form1&mfc_pref=T&s_channel=no_channel&s_onsite_promo=MainNav_Donate&s_subsrc=https://www.feedingamerica.org/&s_src=W204DIRCT&26876_donation=form1&_ga=2.114070212.2132765463.1587655967-1026456070.1587655967″ align=”center” margin_top=”65″ margin_bottom=”65″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#8dc153″ outline_active_text_color=”#8dc153″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#8dc153″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]DONATE TO FEEDING AMERICA[/mk_button]

China’s Energy Gauntlet and the Future of Oil

Coronavirus has launched the greatest energy upheaval since the dawn of the petroleum age. In the short run, this means rock-bottom – even negative – prices for oil and a much-needed price break for the world’s major energy consumers.

But nothing lasts forever.

Extended periods of low prices will destroy the productive capacity of many oil exporters, removing them from the market for years. Once the coronavirus crisis passes, that changed map of oil production and export will radically remake global energy flows. By far the largest loser will be China.

China today, as the world’s largest oil importer, sources crude from quite literally everywhere it can. This map – from my new book, Disunited Nations – shows the diversity of sources and the risks to its oil supply chains posed by other countries.

Many of these producers will not be in the market a year from now. Their absence will add an energy security layer to China’s already irrecoverable debt, finance, demographic, consumption, security, political, supply chain and trade problems.

To get the full story, join Peter Zeihan for a video-conference April 10 to explore the end of the era of global energy markets and the rise of a more regionalized – and far less stable – system.

[mk_button dimension=”outline” corner_style=”rounded” size=”large” letter_spacing=”1″ icon=”mk-li-book” url=”https://zoom.us/webinar/register/7015863606850/WN_LLm0aglvQqK1gAV4Zy0bmQ” align=”center” margin_top=”65″ margin_bottom=”65″ outline_skin=”custom” outline_active_color=”#8dc153″ outline_active_text_color=”#8dc153″ outline_hover_bg_color=”#8dc153″ outline_hover_color=”#ffffff”]REGISTER HERE[/mk_button]

Future planned invents include: