Germany and Russia Start Dancing…Again

Americans woke up to news today that Germany has nationalized assets–primarily refineries–owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft. Assets worth billions of dollars.

Though this is not surprising or unexpected, it’s something we should take seriously. Germany and Russia have a famously difficult relationship going back centuries, and when the going gets rough their disputes get ugly (ask just about anyone in Poland or Ukraine). The more armed conflicts between Russia and Germany, the greater the incentive for them to avoid conflicts all together. 

The default approach since the end of the Cold War was to entwine their two economies to such an extent that it would not make sense for either of them to destabilize or threaten the other. We’re seeing now how much Russian leadership values economic stability over its perception of national security. Unlike previous bouts of Russo-European conflict, however, the current demographic situation on both sides of the conflict is atrocious. Whatever the final result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, what we should not expect is an easy or quick return to economic stability, let alone growth, for either side.

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The Collapse of Empires

The success of Ukrainian forces against Russian troops over the last week is forcing a series of reevaluations of Russian capabilities–especially in the places most of us might not yet be thinking about. There’s been a lot of focus on whether or not Russian threats have teeth. But what of Russian promises of support? 

For a certain swathe of the world, particularly those countries hostile or indifferent to the US-led Order, Russia was about as good or proximate a neighbor as they could hope for. With Russian capabilities under serious scrutiny, countries from Armenia to Belarus to Syria to Mongolia and Moldova are going to see their strategic environments change rapidly. 

There is an elephant in the room in many of these scenarios… and that’s Turkey. Whatever their current economic headaches, the Turkish state under Erdogan has maintained a constant march toward realizing a populist, Islamist-tinged, pan-Turkic nationalism that has played out in several ways. One of the most recent has been Turkey’s arming and not-so-tacit support of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia. Even with Turkey’s erstwhile EU aspirations and current NATO membership, Ankara has been equally at ease in pursuing its own priorities during the bloc’s conflict with the Russians over Ukraine.

But perhaps nowhere will see the full unfurling of Turkish geopolitical ambition in the wake of Russian strategic senescence more than Syria. The Alawite regime in Damascus relies (relied?) heavily on its Russian and Iranian backers, and with Moscow out of the way Ankara faces little opposition. Squashing Kurdish ambitions, redrawing borders, setting up a puppet state, coordinating with Israel to counter Iran–all are on the table for a would be neo-Ottoman Turkey without strong pushback from Russia and Iran.

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Where In the World: Red Devil Lake and Russian Propaganda

Bernie Sanders has long been my least favorite personality in the American political world. Not because he’s an idiot (although he is) or because his ideology is historically, morally and economically blind (although it is all those things), but because he has long been an enthusiastically active and willing stooge for Moscow’s propaganda in the United States. Jill Stein regularly makes my bottom five for similar reasons.
 
But times change. Apparently, the mass murder of Ukrainians in the tens of thousands did something in Sanders’ mind that Moscow’s pointing of thousands of nuclear weapons at his constituents did not. No worries for the Kremlin. There are others in the Western world willing to prostrate themselves to Vladimir Putin. Their reasons vary (greatly) but to a person they are among the greatest threats to the American experiment and way of life.
 
I’m not going to dive into their rationales. That’s a task for people with far greater interest in the Thunderdome of American politics than I have ever possessed. But I can and will outline the whys of Russian propaganda. It didn’t come out of the blue. Its very existence is wrapped up in how Moscow has ruled its territories going back to the beginning.

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The Ukrainians Strike Back

The Russia military position in Ukraine is collapsing so quickly that…words are inadequate. 

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Europe’s Natural Gas Challenge

I have admittedly been taking a break from presenting an update on Europe’s energy future, and not just to hike into the wilderness. There are certainly a lot of balls up in the air right now, and we’re seeing policy and supply changes from week to week. But while we don’t know yet what–if any–“fixes” are in the future for Germany and its neighbors, we know where the shortfalls are.

But first, the good news: Germany’s energy storage is 70-80% full. Industrial and residential users are looking to see where they can voluntarily cut back usage. Governments are looking to step in and help customers shoulder expected price increases. Good? Sure. Enough? Ehh…

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Russia’s Military Starts Shopping Abroad

When I recorded the first part of today’s video, it was in reaction to news that the Russians were having to turn to Iran of all places to help replace the drones lost in ongoing invasion of Ukraine. That Moscow needs to rely on Tehran for anything should be concerning, but perhaps not in the reasons that immediately come to mind. This move by the Russians does not point to the Iranians expanding membership to the Axis of Evil, or a tacit recognition of their technological superiority. 

Rather, Russia’s desperate. 

Iran is not an up-and-coming manufacturing power. Nor have they broken some sort of secret code when it comes to drone and UAV technology. They’re certainly not even producing anything comparable to Turkey’s burgeoning military manufacturing sector. But unlike Turkey, Iranian drones are not dependent on Western technological imports. Or even foreign satellites. Whether or not they’ll have the impact the Russians are looking for in Ukraine is debatable, but the state of the Russian production sector has never looked worse.

Which brings us back to the Axis of Evil. No, a skull-shaped headquarters has not emerged from some fetid swamp (but who can be sure what really goes on in New Jersey politics). Rather, the Russians have tapped another unlikely “partner” to help them combat their rapidly depleting ammunition stocks: North Korea. Moscow is set to begin purchases of artillery shells from Pyongyang, a country whose conventional military production capabilities have not been stress-tested since the cessation of armed conflict on the Korean peninsula nearly seven decades ago.

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Where in the World: The Turner Headwall and…Walls

As long as I’m slaying sacred cows, let’s make sure I don’t miss anything: the border wall has been the biggest boon of the last 50 years to illegal migrants, COVID has made large-scale immigration an economic necessity, and Trump/Biden policies towards immigration are one of the three largest sources of inflation today.

Yeah, that should piss some people off.

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Where in the World: The Turner Cascade and COVID

I hate COVID so very, very much. Not only has it (bizarrely) become a new third rail in American politics, but its international nature has also accelerated many global trade and diplomatic disputes which were already dissolving the globalized era. The virus hasn’t simply robbed us of lives, but also of time. And as I say repeatedly in multiple contexts in my new book – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization – time is the most valuable thing we have.

There are any number of aspects of COVID that are worth discussing, but I’m attempting to stick to my tried-and-true approach of pissing off everyone. Vaccines and natural immunity are not the same, but they are also not consistent. COVID is a moving target.

Luckily, the most recent ammo in the fight against COVID – the Omicron-specific booster – was just approved for use in North America and Europe. By the time you’re reading this text it should be shipping out to pharmacies. It should be available before the end of September!

Note:
I misspoke at about 2:55: I should have said something like “We know from data that the vaccines worked better than natural immunity against Delta and Omicron B, but we also know that natural immunity worked better than vaccinations against Omicron A.” (I accidentally mentioned Omicron B twice. I don’t backpack with fact-checkers. My bad.)

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Western Arms Support for Ukraine

We are seeing a tremendous amount of arms and technology flowing into Ukraine from NATO members, Sweden and Finland. This amounts to one of the greatest transfers of tech and materiel since the collapse of the Cold War. But the arms purchases and transfers aren’t just happening from NATO to Ukraine, but amongst NATO members as well. 

This sort of large-scale purchasing and upgrading of Europe’s militaries is going to have a profound impact on the continent, well beyond Russia’s current conflict with Ukraine.

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Where in the World: Vanderburgh Lake and Water

In the new book –The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization– I dive into any number of the implications of a country’s hydrological cycles and access. Everything from its ability to interact with the wider world to its military posture to its financial strength to what foods it can (and cannot) grow. 

Today we’re going to talk about something much more straightforward: moving the stuff. In many ways water is the worst! It’s low value. It’s bulky. It sloshes. It is among the most difficult of things to move en masse. And yet and yet and yet it is absolutely essential to the human condition. Have water? You can be something special. Don’t have water? History is just itching to forget about you.

Which has direct implications for the Ukraine War.

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